Huginn & Muninn Intelligence - Iran Conflict, Ukraine War, OSINT, and Misinformation

WEBVTT

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 Okay, welcome back world of blazers. I have a great guest today. I have Daniel from HM intelligence and

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 You come highly recommended Daniel from an acquaintance. We have

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 Kervin thank you very much when he said that you are legit the real deal and

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 I've been listening to your podcast to your your daily updates

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 Which is great and love how you deliver the information

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 But I know that you also go a lot further with that in your services through your HM intelligence

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 company have

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 So hopefully you can help us make sense of what the hell's going on

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 With Iran with what's happening in the world. I mean, it's it's a it's basically a big shit show right now

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 It's a tall ask. Yeah, we can give it a go. It's a tall ask. We'll see where we go with it, right?

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 Yeah, firstly if you don't mind, let's start with the Ron because that is everything that you know

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 That's what everyone's talking about

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 Obviously it is the biggest conflict at the moment even overshadowing must be going on you in the Ukraine for the last four years

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 or so

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 so

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 basically, I

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 Want I want I want to get from your perspective with the Ron

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 Here's the deal. Everybody's wondering like should this war is even should it even have happen? Should we even be there?

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 I mean, it's there there's an ideological component to this obviously there's there's a there's a religious ideological

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 Component to this but at the same time, there's also an economic component to this

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 Many are saying hey, you know, it's about time. We have a free Iran

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 For example, the people should have a free Iran where they're not oppressed by the Islamic regime

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 But we're also seeing the implications of the actions taken by the US and allies and how it's affecting the the Gulf

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 States there as well as they're also being attacked which is crazy to see since they are their Muslim neighbors

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 So, yeah, what are your thoughts on this in general without you know

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 I'm not gonna put you on the spot as in saying this is exactly what you think

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 But give me your opinion based on the intelligence that you are gathering what you see out there

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 So I think this was

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 essentially, I

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 Think the US winning head with this sport the Trump administration went ahead with us because it was a

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 Few things fell into place for them

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 China has just removed their senior leadership of their military. So they are unlikely to act Russia has proven that they can't

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 support any of their traditional allies while they are occupied in Ukraine and

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 I think Trump has been trying to move essentially up the board of countries that

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 Would I kind of like lean towards their side, right?

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 You know, he took out Venezuela and now he's taken out Iran

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 So I think that was one of the big factors to him and like the judgment there

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 Whether they should have done it is not really my

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 People countries do what they're gonna do. I understood Trump. The Trump factor is

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 It's hard to

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 Fathom he's kind of proven this in the past and I've said it. Yeah

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 Numerous times now is that he's the wild card that no one can predict and I think he likes that about himself and it's

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 It essentially puts everybody on edge because there's an unpredictable character

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 Yeah, it's kind of that's kind of why I think they went ahead with it

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 I think they thought Iran's quite isolated at the moment. They're degraded

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 Yeah, I think they thought the civilian population were gonna be quite

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 open to a revolution if the situation was

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 Correct

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 Following the protests earlier in the year. So I think they thought everything had kind of lined up and that now was the time to

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 Take that step. I

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 Yeah, I can definitely agree with that

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 It's kind of kind of crazy how people didn't connect the dots with you know

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 The actions taken by the US in our own southern hemisphere

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 Over here and taking out Maduro and controlling that area in Venezuela

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 Especially when Iran was making inroads to set up, you know their own

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 Sleeper cells whatnot within that area from a place from where they can launch any attacks

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 So to speak if they wanted to then there was the China component there as well

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 So just locking that down and making sure there's no, you know actions or adverse actions taken against the US from our own

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 Southern hemisphere was a huge thing which then now you see him taking the actions against Iran

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 So it's almost like he was setting this up and people weren't really seeing that and so to me it looked all

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 Connected I could be off but from what I was seeing that's kind of like just watching the pieces fall in place

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 Yeah, I definitely think they're connected now is pressuring Cuba like that's the next step for them

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 Right Cuba has always been this kind of thorn in the US's

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 Geopolitical security kind of side. It's a hostile neighbor. That's it's

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 uncomfortably close to Florida and it

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 likes to play host to

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 unfavorable

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 Guests such as like Chinese intelligence collection basing themselves out of there. So, you know

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 Putting a lot of pressure on them following the fall of Venezuela is a lot easier

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 Because they're much more isolated again

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 It's just more and more of these countries are preoccupied with other things and unable to help each other out

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 So they're isolating them and trying to remove them from the essentially the chessboard of geopolitics, right?

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 And then also the real the long-standing Russian relationship right with Cuba

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 Yeah, yeah, and it's hard to tell whether or not Russia's really a threat necessarily to the US

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 But you know Putin has been very adamant about continuing to provide Iran with Intel

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 And so what you said, you know, I I think a lot of people haven't said which is true

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 It's like this whole thing is just exposed to me. Anyway opinion here

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 How much the the so-called

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 Alliances between Russia Iran North Korea

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 Right in China how strong they really are who's really willing to act

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 Um, I was I was waiting to see how China was going to respond to this whole situation

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 But thus far they really haven't done anything. They kind of just been hanging out on you know out watching everything from

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 You know from up on a ridge so to speak just looking down going. Okay, let's just see how how everything plays out

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 How the how the cards fall and then they might make a decision on what they're going to do next and a lot of people

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 Still think that you know, maybe we're just holding out to see how they advance on Taiwan here and then in their future

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 And as far as Russia's relationship with Iran right now in exchange for example technologies drones versus intelligence and etc

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 Do you do you foresee Russia ever really stepping foot into this conflict or do you think they'll always stay on the outside looking in?

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 I don't think they have the capacity at the moment. I think they're very bogged down in Ukraine

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 All right, Ukraine has been making some pretty positive step forward suspicious in the Zaporozhian near region

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 There's been quite a few counterattacks that have gone quite well for them. I think Russia's

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 Is definitely feeling the brunt of a long war both economically and just in terms of like military capacity

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 They like to say that they still have like capacity to know fire off the eastern

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 Coast, but I don't believe this to be the case. I think they are probably much more understaffed than they

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 let

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 right be known publicly and that there

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 They just don't have the capacity to conduct like go in and actually support Iran. And again, that's

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 That would be direct confrontation with the West which I don't think they're right something they've been avoiding for quite some time

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 Yeah

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 It's so getting getting back to the original

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 Question of hand when first start let's get back to or to Iran

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 Is is Iran?

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 Is this something that is a winnable?

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 conflict

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 I

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 Don't see how it can be. Okay. I

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 essentially if you're looking for like when conditions like what's

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 What does victory look like? Yeah, what is considered a ration? Yeah. Yeah, I think that would be

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 complete removal of the current regime and

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 a new more pro-western regime put into place

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 Currently that seems unlikely

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 despite the

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 Now three nearly four-week campaign against the regime there's still a pretty

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 significant security force within the country they still maintain the ability to fire missiles and drones at

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 Numerous locations. They still maintain like long-range ballistic missiles, which they fired it

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 Yeah, Greg, I see you and said they morning like they still hold significant capacity and this is the conflict they've been preparing for

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 Yeah, and I mean they're showing their tactics and especially the Strait of Hormuz was

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 viable this was and

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 lots of people have been talking about it this war game that happened in like 2004 where

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 This this closing of the Strait of Hormuz was like a significant move by the Iranian

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 That were the US intelligence officer who was playing the original Iranian regime and it essentially crippled the global markets

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 And I think he's probably spot-on and he's being proven correct

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 Hmm well

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 See what you're saying there. So as far as a win is concerned and let's ask a win for who really

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 Right for the West and for the for the people of Iran for the Middle East

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 But can we not argue that it would be advantageous in the Middle East of this if this regime was actually wiped out

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 The question is how far is everybody willing to go to do that and

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 At some point I don't think they're going to just because you know

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 I think the economic pressures themselves are going to cause you know

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 like the US for example to start pulling the reins on that because when it comes down to and start hurting pocketbooks

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 nobody has a stomach to continue and

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 really finish so

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 The big issue to me from what I've seen and I have studied the history on all of this

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 Especially when the regime took over

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 They have not from my my opinion Daniel they have not been a benefit to the Middle East whatsoever

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 And this has been evident in how they've been attacking their neighbors now

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 We can argue that they're only doing so because there's US bases installed within those other areas like Qatar and whatnot

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 But at the same time it's like they're just saying look if you're not with us you're an enemy

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 Regardless and so now we start to question those relationships

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 Well, is it really really about the is it about the religious context, you know context of this?

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 Is it really about the Muslim unification or is this really about one nation standing on their own?

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 wanting to maintain control power and terror in the area

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 Versus an actual united Muslim front as they keep trying to portray all these years. So I

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 Believe you're correct. I don't know if we're gonna have the stump to go all the way

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 but you know in your opinion what can really be done to truly help the Iranian people which is what was told to us is the

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 Real reason that we even got involved was to help them, you know rise up against their own oppressive government

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 Do you think there's anything that could be done that can possibly, you know nudge them to be able to do so?

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 Because right now I'm not sure that they have the weaponry the armaments

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 You know as it is to stand up against the IRGC, for example, it's not gonna happen

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 When your opinion could be done to help the people though directly I don't know and I think this is one of the

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 the biggest like question marks over the whole conflict is like what what is setting the conditions for a revolution over it like

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 To overthrow the regime because Israel has been conducting like tactical level strikes against by individual bus siege

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 Like command posts and like checkpoints and that's getting down to the nitty-gritty. That's like

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 Battlefield targeting right? That's as if they were using that to eliminate

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 Hardened positions for like troops moving through and yet we're still not seeing any signs of a revolution

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 I think one of the other difficulties is

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 earlier in the year there was such a large-scale protest and some estimates were around 30,000 people were

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 Killed during like the reprisals and the crackdowns during that the people that came out then

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 Were likely the people who were quite keen and you know, willing to put their life on the line for a revolution

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 They've they were ultimately

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 Eliminated during that uprising. So maybe the people that are left and no longer the ones that are willing to take action

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 Good point. Yeah, actually good point

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 Hmm. What about what about the resistance?

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 Resistance groups out there like the NCRI basically or the MEK

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 They're not necessarily pop or popular with the older generations of the Iranian people because of what they did in siding with the rock

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 And trying to go against, you know, the Iranian regime at the time or Islamic regime, but in the process absolutely killed Iranians

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 They've been adamant about

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 Trying to push their 10-point plan for democratic Iran

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 But doesn't seem like they have too much backing or favor from the people themselves as long not that I can see anyway

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 You think factions like them are gonna be able to step in and and help whatsoever

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 Because they seem to be and I've interviewed a few of their their their members

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 They from the outside looking in they're like, well, we just want to see a democratic Iran with religion removed

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 From the governing body which makes a lot of sense

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 but I'm not seeing how they're gonna be able to implement this and

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 They're behind a few resistance efforts right now even with the war going on but nobody's talking about it

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 Do you think that like for example the groups like the MEK or are they even a factor or are they just too small to?

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 Even make a difference and even helping in the fight and if if so

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 Are they the right type of people to run?

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 Iran for example, or does just lead to more of the same

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 We need to feel like they could just be more of the same while all revolutionaries talk of wanting free and fair elections

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 Right when they finally take over

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 Things tend to go the other way as we've seen numerous times throughout history

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 I think the other factor is that you know, the IRGC spent 40 years ensuring that

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 They were degraded to basically nothing and like propaganda throughout that time. So even the

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 You know moderates within Iran probably do not view them very well

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 Outside of just the fact that the Iranian security services have spent so long

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 ensuring that they don't have the capabilities to

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 Conduct any type of operations within the country and whether you know US clandestine units have

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 Been supplying these people in the build-up to this

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 I don't think there was enough of a run-up to start, you know training maybe militias within side of Iran that could conduct these types of operations

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 there

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 Yeah, it's just not really enough time to set the conditions

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 Mounted on top of early in the year. They lost all those people. They were probably the more

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 willing to put it well clearly more willing to put their life on the line for a revolution and

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 It's such

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 Right, so

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 unfortunately

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 From what you're saying

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 Or at least from the opinions you're giving us based on whatever, you know

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 It seems like we're almost hurting the Iranian people more than we're helping them at this moment. I think it it's how it ends

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 and that's the difficult part is like there it's looking like there's a realistic possibility here that after a month or two of

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 Bombing the absolute crap out of every type of infrastructure in Iran

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 We're just going to be left with a more radical more extreme

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 regime that is hardened more like hardened their resolve and

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 Just more willing to keep the fight on if they're not essentially if the regime isn't removed by some degree at the end of this

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 It's going to be way worse like the all of the other GCC nations are super angry with Iran

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 Of course that they've been getting shot at but right like they're never gonna forget that but

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 It's just gonna drag on I think

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 Yeah

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 without the removal of the regime

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 Which which again, I don't think we really have the stomach to do I mean it's no and this is and that's where he goes

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 Back to yeah, unfortunately

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00:17:15.300 --> 00:17:19.599
 So what about like you just mentioned it how the the other Gulf

213
00:17:19.599 --> 00:17:22.619
 States are really upset with Iran because they're being attacked

214
00:17:24.060 --> 00:17:24.560
 I

215
00:17:24.560 --> 00:17:29.970
 Forgot who said this morning. I don't remember if it was Kuwait or the UAE

216
00:17:31.100 --> 00:17:32.360
 Made a statement

217
00:17:32.360 --> 00:17:38.540
 I don't remember which but they just made a statement to where they they said that Iranian diplomats are no longer welcome within their

218
00:17:38.540 --> 00:17:40.540
 country and they've given them

219
00:17:40.540 --> 00:17:45.110
 So much time to get out like they said they're done persona non grottos with her

220
00:17:45.770 --> 00:17:49.650
 I can't remember who to sit up. I don't I just saw it this morning. I just popped up

221
00:17:49.650 --> 00:17:52.850
 I don't remember the country, but basically one of the Gulf States just made that statement

222
00:17:53.610 --> 00:17:55.970
 there's been other statements of

223
00:17:55.970 --> 00:18:01.770
 saying hey, you know if we get more attacks, we're gonna have to step into this war and

224
00:18:01.770 --> 00:18:04.850
 Then Iran is also just threatened this morning as well

225
00:18:04.850 --> 00:18:13.790
 Just popped up that they were threatening against the Gulf States and the United States and saying look if you start to target our

226
00:18:14.530 --> 00:18:21.730
 Infrastructure for example our electrical grids, etc that they will go after these other Gulf States in retaliation

227
00:18:23.970 --> 00:18:29.610
 Now it it doesn't seem to me and I may be wrong because this is not what I do is what you do

228
00:18:29.610 --> 00:18:34.230
 But it doesn't seem to me that runs being very strategic. It seems like they're being very reactionary

229
00:18:34.230 --> 00:18:37.730
 And I'm not sure they really have a plan as most of their leaders have been wiped out

230
00:18:38.470 --> 00:18:42.090
 Am I reading this wrong or is there something more to it?

231
00:18:43.790 --> 00:18:45.490
 I think this is

232
00:18:45.490 --> 00:18:50.950
 While it appears there is no plan. That's part of the plan is kind of the mentality of it. Gotcha is

233
00:18:51.710 --> 00:18:54.510
 They had designed their units and like built

234
00:18:55.870 --> 00:19:00.610
 Plans and put them in place that you know, if you lose upper leadership

235
00:19:01.150 --> 00:19:03.190
 Just start shooting like

236
00:19:04.030 --> 00:19:09.890
 It's what it seems like to me anyway and from everything I've read that, you know rocket units were given it

237
00:19:09.890 --> 00:19:14.130
 Basically the permission that if you no longer receive instructions and you still have rockets

238
00:19:14.130 --> 00:19:18.130
 Just target whatever you feel like and don't really think about it. It's been

239
00:19:18.130 --> 00:19:25.770
 Throughout the weeks has been like multiple different stories of like Iran saying they would no longer target GCC nations

240
00:19:25.770 --> 00:19:30.170
 And then with within an hour or two there has been other ballistic missiles

241
00:19:30.170 --> 00:19:35.270
 Yeah, it definitely seems to be a massive loss of command and control within the forces

242
00:19:35.270 --> 00:19:42.830
 But I think this is also by design because they knew that Israel and the US would be very strategic and removing and eliminating

243
00:19:42.830 --> 00:19:50.990
 Key decision makers within the military that they set it up so that they could continue to fight and essentially resist

244
00:19:50.990 --> 00:19:58.210
 So long as they could at whatever technical levels they are. So yeah, which also makes

245
00:19:59.090 --> 00:20:01.310
 Making a deal and like, you know ensuring

246
00:20:02.230 --> 00:20:05.350
 Oil can transit through the Strait of Hormuz because you don't know

247
00:20:06.030 --> 00:20:12.250
 What level of leadership you need to talk to there could be technical level units that are just out there dropping sea mines

248
00:20:12.730 --> 00:20:17.690
 Willy-nilly and locations that are completely unmarked and chips are just gonna hit them

249
00:20:18.110 --> 00:20:19.410
 Even if I run

250
00:20:19.410 --> 00:20:23.430
 Like upper higher levels of Iran say they can pass through

251
00:20:24.710 --> 00:20:26.310
 Yeah, so it's

252
00:20:27.430 --> 00:20:34.410
 So it really in your mind really is an actual tactic so more more to confuse keep people on their heels almost giving

253
00:20:34.410 --> 00:20:37.730
 Iran time to regroup and kind of you know

254
00:20:37.730 --> 00:20:42.010
 Come up with a proper plan of attacks so to speak in terms of what they're gonna focus on

255
00:20:43.950 --> 00:20:48.710
 Makes sense. I mean it seems to be a tactic of theirs that they've used many times before our

256
00:20:49.730 --> 00:20:51.710
 How about let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz

257
00:20:52.330 --> 00:20:54.210
 Do you do you really in your mind?

258
00:20:55.070 --> 00:20:56.590
 The rhetoric going around

259
00:20:57.190 --> 00:21:04.570
 That has been said that for example the Trump administration before they made the decision actually did not know that the Strait of Hormuz would be

260
00:21:05.310 --> 00:21:07.390
 Controlled and shut down

261
00:21:07.390 --> 00:21:14.770
 Is that do you believe that is something to be true or do you believe that Trump just took a chance and and maybe?

262
00:21:15.570 --> 00:21:17.590
 made a made the wrong call on that one

263
00:21:19.570 --> 00:21:24.190
 So there's something they always talk about and Intel there's either operational success

264
00:21:24.210 --> 00:21:27.250
 Or intelligence failure if things go right

265
00:21:28.070 --> 00:21:35.030
 Operation staff the decision makers they take all the glory when things go wrong Intel are the first people to get blamed

266
00:21:35.030 --> 00:21:37.010
 This is something yet told

267
00:21:37.010 --> 00:21:41.570
 very early on within your career because you're going to run into it if there's

268
00:21:42.230 --> 00:21:46.150
 Mistakes, you know if the wrong target gets it you always hear it

269
00:21:46.150 --> 00:21:50.970
 Oh the Intel was wrong the Intel was bad that Intel told us the wrong thing, right?

270
00:21:51.590 --> 00:21:54.610
 It's the easiest thing to blame because it's this

271
00:21:56.050 --> 00:22:01.830
 Mystical like thing you can just point the finger at. Yeah, do I think that Trump didn't get told no

272
00:22:01.830 --> 00:22:07.150
 I think someone somewhere would have put forward that as a course of action. I think

273
00:22:08.270 --> 00:22:15.330
 It's even evident in their operations planning like some of the first sites that they hit were along the coast hitting naval units

274
00:22:15.330 --> 00:22:20.870
 Right word, but that's what they're there for they're there to try and control the Strait of Hormuz. So

275
00:22:20.970 --> 00:22:28.290
 In their own actions, they were at this right at the start of the conflict attempting to stop this from happening

276
00:22:28.290 --> 00:22:30.630
 I just don't think they

277
00:22:30.630 --> 00:22:38.490
 Forsore what maybe the assessments were wrong and how capable these forces would be at shutting down the Straits

278
00:22:38.490 --> 00:22:40.530
 one of the

279
00:22:40.530 --> 00:22:42.410
 Key components of this that I remember

280
00:22:42.410 --> 00:22:48.150
 Caring about was that Iran has a very capable like shorter ship missile. So it's not even about

281
00:22:48.570 --> 00:22:49.610
 naval boats

282
00:22:50.370 --> 00:22:55.710
 It's they just shoot missiles from the basically from hidden locations within the cliffside

283
00:22:56.090 --> 00:23:01.710
 Into the side of ships to sink them. So yeah, it's a very narrow straight of water

284
00:23:01.710 --> 00:23:07.870
 That's pretty easy to cut off if you're if you speak especially spent 30 to 40 years

285
00:23:07.870 --> 00:23:09.810
 preparing for this eventuality

286
00:23:09.810 --> 00:23:17.170
 Right and that's something we've seen Iran's proxies use as a tactic also against cargo ships before

287
00:23:17.170 --> 00:23:22.610
 You know from their land to sea like you said missiles or rockets that have been used

288
00:23:22.610 --> 00:23:29.850
 So if if we're just looking at that, you know, we how could we not assume that Iran themselves wouldn't have that capability, right?

289
00:23:30.770 --> 00:23:32.330
 Yeah, I think

290
00:23:33.050 --> 00:23:39.330
 The kind of telltale sign is they're targeting at the start of the operation. They targeted coastline defenses and

291
00:23:40.050 --> 00:23:46.310
 Naval units almost immediately. So right I think they were definitely aware that this was a possibility

292
00:23:46.310 --> 00:23:51.250
 I just think they don't want to be held accountable for the current fallout

293
00:23:51.250 --> 00:23:53.490
 Understood. So what it is

294
00:23:54.070 --> 00:24:01.010
 They prepared but didn't seem like they really went all in on it from from from which is maybe underestimated the

295
00:24:01.010 --> 00:24:04.230
 capability of these forces and like they just

296
00:24:05.190 --> 00:24:11.570
 Yeah, didn't do enough for didn't hit the right locations or didn't think they would be able to do what they can do

297
00:24:11.570 --> 00:24:15.090
 Yeah, and honestly that that seems to make the most sense this explanation

298
00:24:15.090 --> 00:24:19.650
 I mean, there's no way that we can say that Trump for example was not informed

299
00:24:19.650 --> 00:24:25.150
 I'm sure he was you know, but maybe they were just like you said underestimated the situation in and of itself

300
00:24:25.690 --> 00:24:34.190
 That makes a lot of sure. There's a lot of competing prior priorities and the targetings and like what things need to be taken into account

301
00:24:34.730 --> 00:24:38.410
 So since we're talking about this, yeah since we're talking about the strata hormones

302
00:24:39.370 --> 00:24:43.130
 What is your what is your initial reaction and or take on?

303
00:24:44.790 --> 00:24:46.390
 Western allies saying no

304
00:24:46.390 --> 00:24:52.570
 We do not want to step in and help the US with this mess that that was created with strata hormones

305
00:24:52.570 --> 00:24:58.630
 You know France the UK even Japan like nobody really really like, you know what we're kind of hands-off on this

306
00:24:59.890 --> 00:25:02.010
 What is your take on that reaction?

307
00:25:04.070 --> 00:25:06.810
 I'm not surprised is my

308
00:25:08.190 --> 00:25:09.850
 Very short assessment

309
00:25:09.850 --> 00:25:11.450
 The longer

310
00:25:12.930 --> 00:25:17.330
 Winded version is like this is just the blowback from trunks trumps

311
00:25:18.050 --> 00:25:21.170
 12 months of rhetoric against those allies

312
00:25:21.170 --> 00:25:27.230
 Yeah, he's essentially spent 12 months being like you guys do nothing you guys like essentially he's

313
00:25:28.310 --> 00:25:33.190
 Ruining his soft power with them and then turned around and asked them to try and help and probably one of the most

314
00:25:33.910 --> 00:25:37.410
 Dangerous and technically complex operations that you could possibly do

315
00:25:37.410 --> 00:25:45.050
 That he's essentially asking them to sacrifice people's lives because if you sail naval ships into those regions

316
00:25:45.050 --> 00:25:48.970
 You're going to lose people's lives. That's just what's gonna happen

317
00:25:48.970 --> 00:25:53.410
 So if they as they've talked about want to escort ships through

318
00:25:53.410 --> 00:26:01.630
 How quickly are those ship shorter ship missiles gonna go from shooting at cargo ships to firing into the side of naval ships?

319
00:26:02.150 --> 00:26:06.910
 Pretty quickly and they the way they work is they'd sit just above the water so they can

320
00:26:08.370 --> 00:26:13.350
 Significant damage and a very hard to stop. Yeah, I mean that's that's that's a clear to the point

321
00:26:13.910 --> 00:26:15.830
 assessment of the situation there

322
00:26:15.830 --> 00:26:19.810
 But the other side of that is you know, for example

323
00:26:20.710 --> 00:26:26.330
 These other nations are much more reliant on the use of the Strait of Hormuz than the u.s. Is honestly

324
00:26:26.870 --> 00:26:31.810
 We don't really get much of our oil for example from us ship

325
00:26:32.290 --> 00:26:37.270
 Yeah, so I one of the only countries that over produces the amount of oil used

326
00:26:37.950 --> 00:26:43.490
 I mean that makes complete sense. I

327
00:26:43.490 --> 00:26:45.810
 Don't know. I think it's just gonna become a

328
00:26:46.470 --> 00:26:53.710
 Very painful point and drive the price of oil up another thing that I've been looking at and like thinking about recently is

329
00:26:54.270 --> 00:27:01.730
 Even when the Straits do open the amount of damage that is currently getting done on oil infrastructure within that Gulf

330
00:27:01.730 --> 00:27:03.110
 Oh, yeah is

331
00:27:03.110 --> 00:27:04.670
 significant it's not

332
00:27:04.670 --> 00:27:12.670
 Easily fixed or quickly replaced so like even when ships do pass through say it open tomorrow and

333
00:27:13.110 --> 00:27:16.350
 Every ship that is possibly can like leave and come go as they want

334
00:27:16.350 --> 00:27:20.130
 The time it'll take to fix all that infrastructure is going to be months

335
00:27:20.630 --> 00:27:25.110
 So I think there's gonna be some serious blow-on effects here. Oh, absolutely

336
00:27:25.110 --> 00:27:30.650
 I mean there are multiple refineries hit and destroyed by Iran themselves. We got the LNG

337
00:27:30.650 --> 00:27:36.890
 Gas plant over there was a Kuwait that was that was destroyed or actually guitar was guitar

338
00:27:36.890 --> 00:27:43.290
 Yeah, and that what it I think that affected like 17% of their output somewhere around there 17 20%

339
00:27:44.330 --> 00:27:46.330
 Yeah, so and then and of course

340
00:27:46.950 --> 00:27:51.970
 Iran's own LNG field or for refineries also hit by Israel and

341
00:27:52.550 --> 00:27:56.350
 You know Netanyahu actually took credit for that saying yeah, we did it on our own

342
00:27:56.870 --> 00:27:59.250
 So yeah, it's gonna be a mess there in terms of

343
00:28:00.010 --> 00:28:03.750
 Energy that is able to be you know given to the world from that region

344
00:28:03.750 --> 00:28:06.550
 So it's almost you know, and I just thought of this while you were talking

345
00:28:06.550 --> 00:28:12.910
 It's like well kind of like pieces falling into place right going and taking Maduro out while they're they have one of the largest

346
00:28:12.910 --> 00:28:13.750
 reserves of oil

347
00:28:13.750 --> 00:28:15.670
 America made this deal

348
00:28:15.670 --> 00:28:19.150
 Alaska we're pretty much mostly untapped. We hardly even use anything there

349
00:28:20.650 --> 00:28:27.710
 Is it possible that Trump is trying to set this up to where people have to go to the US and I mean that

350
00:28:27.710 --> 00:28:37.540
 Or even Canada for for for energy. I mean, I think there could be a positive unforeseen outcome for the US because

351
00:28:38.060 --> 00:28:41.060
 You're gonna become one of the number one suppliers globally

352
00:28:41.060 --> 00:28:45.300
 I think I'd also push a lot of countries to start

353
00:28:45.300 --> 00:28:50.860
 Drill like becoming more self-sufficient is being so I'm from New Zealand. We don't

354
00:28:51.540 --> 00:28:55.080
 Essentially get our own oil. We even stopped refining it ourselves

355
00:28:55.080 --> 00:28:59.680
 Just because of the natural like the risk of natural disaster

356
00:28:59.680 --> 00:29:02.320
 And there's lots of talk in New Zealand now

357
00:29:02.320 --> 00:29:08.760
 We have some large oil fields and we've never even attempted to try and drill them and there's talk now

358
00:29:09.240 --> 00:29:12.080
 Trying to drill them just to become a bit more self-sufficient

359
00:29:13.300 --> 00:29:18.380
 I think New Zealand is currently on 50 days of fuel because we didn't even hold

360
00:29:19.240 --> 00:29:25.060
 Like you know the global average is 90. I think Australia is in a worse position than we are

361
00:29:25.080 --> 00:29:30.780
 And they have no refiners either. So yeah, another thing someone told me and I don't know how true this is

362
00:29:30.780 --> 00:29:34.480
 So I should look into it more but is that the refineries in the u.s

363
00:29:35.680 --> 00:29:36.280
 aren't

364
00:29:36.280 --> 00:29:40.060
 designed for the oil you guys produce and

365
00:29:40.920 --> 00:29:46.920
 So the it's like essentially US oil was like is it shale? Oh, yeah

366
00:29:47.580 --> 00:29:51.920
 It's like very thin and very like easy to refine

367
00:29:51.920 --> 00:29:59.220
 Whereas Venezuelan oil is very thick and hard to like in your refineries and more designed to refine

368
00:29:59.220 --> 00:30:01.160
 thicker harder crude I

369
00:30:01.780 --> 00:30:07.680
 Think I think it's actually a combination because if you look at the history with Venezuela way back, I think it was Chevron

370
00:30:08.520 --> 00:30:13.320
 Corporation, I believe way back that actually helped Venezuela develop

371
00:30:13.320 --> 00:30:17.840
 Refineries and they had a long-standing contract in Venezuela with the government

372
00:30:19.120 --> 00:30:22.000
 Going I it goes let's just say it goes back a long ways

373
00:30:23.860 --> 00:30:27.740
 So they were the ones that were helping Venezuela actually get the oil and refine it

374
00:30:27.740 --> 00:30:32.160
 So they actually create a refinery specifically for that type of oil the thicker substances

375
00:30:32.160 --> 00:30:37.720
 You're talking about later through relationships dictators, etc. They eventually said, you know what?

376
00:30:37.760 --> 00:30:42.540
 We're no longer working with the US. So those refineries that were there and ready to go have been stagnant for a while

377
00:30:43.440 --> 00:30:45.460
 They're working to bring those back online

378
00:30:46.420 --> 00:30:53.500
 At you know, basically at Trump's request for sure, but we still have refineries to refine our own oil

379
00:30:53.500 --> 00:30:58.800
 I mean we have refineries in Texas off the coast of California. We have you know off the coast of Florida

380
00:30:58.800 --> 00:31:00.000
 I mean they're all over the place

381
00:31:00.000 --> 00:31:05.940
 so we still have that ability that the problem that the US has with oil is when I

382
00:31:05.940 --> 00:31:08.260
 Think with under the Biden administration when he decided, you know

383
00:31:08.260 --> 00:31:12.260
 We're just good drain about 40% of our reserves for whatever reason which made no sense

384
00:31:12.260 --> 00:31:17.100
 Which can then put the US back into a position of being reliant on

385
00:31:17.100 --> 00:31:22.780
 The Middle East for example, which we really if we're good to be honest Daniel

386
00:31:22.780 --> 00:31:25.660
 The US really doesn't need to be buying oil from anybody

387
00:31:25.660 --> 00:31:30.220
 I think everybody's playing this long game where they're like, well, let's see who runs out

388
00:31:30.220 --> 00:31:33.720
 Well, unfortunately, the world's not gonna run out of oil. It's a natural substance

389
00:31:33.720 --> 00:31:37.780
 It's just it's just it just comes from the breakdown of natural biological

390
00:31:39.100 --> 00:31:40.140
 You know

391
00:31:40.140 --> 00:31:46.020
 Materials such as you and I our bodies get buried whatever it just it just eventually that's what comes out of the earth

392
00:31:46.020 --> 00:31:47.300
 So it's not going away

393
00:31:47.300 --> 00:31:51.760
 And I think is very short-sighted for these guys to try to play this game like what we're gonna outlast you now

394
00:31:51.760 --> 00:31:53.860
 We have these reserves now you got to turn the US great

395
00:31:53.860 --> 00:31:59.620
 Well, like you said, you know New Zealand has you know places where they can get oil, you know, Russia

396
00:31:59.620 --> 00:32:02.620
 I mean many countries can get their own oil

397
00:32:02.620 --> 00:32:07.740
 How much they have and what they're gonna consume versus what they need to buy now that is the question, right?

398
00:32:07.740 --> 00:32:11.920
 That's where we're gonna have to make these relationships and make these deals, but the US is completely reliant

399
00:32:11.920 --> 00:32:15.100
 I don't know why between you and I we play these games with the world

400
00:32:15.100 --> 00:32:20.320
 It we really shouldn't be doing this. We should just say look Middle East. You're great oil. You have it

401
00:32:20.320 --> 00:32:26.740
 We have ours if we need to make whatever relationship we need to because of the say geographical locations to save money on shipping

402
00:32:26.740 --> 00:32:32.620
 Etc that makes sense right from a business standpoint, but outside of that I have no I from me to you

403
00:32:32.620 --> 00:32:36.980
 I don't know why the US even gets involved in this whole oil debacle

404
00:32:36.980 --> 00:32:42.140
 And the people that always say that we're in it for the oil. I think they don't really understand what's going on

405
00:32:42.140 --> 00:32:48.400
 We don't need the oil. We're there for the dollar. We're there to keep the dollar strong because it's backing everything and

406
00:32:49.460 --> 00:32:53.080
 That's really what I see the US being involved in as far as Iran

407
00:32:53.080 --> 00:32:54.460
 And again, this is my opinion

408
00:32:54.460 --> 00:32:54.960
 like I said

409
00:32:54.960 --> 00:32:59.360
 I don't I don't do what you do like you you can go you dive a lot deeper you get all

410
00:32:59.360 --> 00:33:02.960
 information that I don't but the reality is I

411
00:33:02.960 --> 00:33:06.120
 Think this thing with Iran with the US has been on a 50-year collision course

412
00:33:06.120 --> 00:33:11.320
 Okay started started when you know, we assert the other got rid of the other regime

413
00:33:11.320 --> 00:33:14.700
 We stepped in operation Ajax, whatever you can say it was the US's fault

414
00:33:14.700 --> 00:33:19.100
 But we actually were there at the behest of the British government because of oil

415
00:33:19.820 --> 00:33:22.840
 On the British government's part had nothing to do with the US

416
00:33:22.840 --> 00:33:27.680
 US's interests over there in the least and I'm sure you already know this was really had to do at the time with

417
00:33:27.680 --> 00:33:29.140
 The Cold War between us and Russia

418
00:33:29.140 --> 00:33:35.040
 We didn't want communism to come in and root themselves in the Middle East because why give them more areas to control

419
00:33:35.040 --> 00:33:38.500
 That's why the United States was originally wanting to be there

420
00:33:39.560 --> 00:33:45.420
 So I'm just I personally Daniel between you and I I think there's a lot of misinformation a lot of misunderstanding of the history

421
00:33:45.420 --> 00:33:51.980
 And why we're there it's not always nefarious as people say a lot of it just comes down to money or literally keeping out

422
00:33:51.980 --> 00:33:56.400
 The bad guy at least in the Western nation's eyes, right? So

423
00:33:56.940 --> 00:34:01.940
 That that's my take and I and I'm always open for correction because you know, I obviously will miss things

424
00:34:01.940 --> 00:34:04.720
 I'm not I only have so much time to dive into this stuff

425
00:34:05.520 --> 00:34:09.179
 But you know as far as Iran is concerned and from my viewpoint

426
00:34:09.179 --> 00:34:12.400
 I think I think the big thing for me has always been the Islamic regime

427
00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:15.860
 They have not been a benefit to the Middle East. They haven't been a benefit to their people whatsoever

428
00:34:16.520 --> 00:34:22.860
 Ever since they took over in 1979. They fooled everybody, right? They're like, hey, we're gonna take care of everything

429
00:34:22.860 --> 00:34:25.820
 We take care of the people they got in there by manipulating, you know

430
00:34:25.820 --> 00:34:28.520
 Academia and able to get in there once you got the students on their side

431
00:34:28.520 --> 00:34:32.940
 They would do the protest they they're the inroads you need to start turning the tide just like we're starting to see in

432
00:34:32.940 --> 00:34:40.020
 America here start in New York, etc. And so that's how they got in now that they got in they totally turned to 180

433
00:34:40.960 --> 00:34:42.780
 It's now a very hardcore

434
00:34:44.600 --> 00:34:47.500
 View of Islam that they're trying to use to control the people and

435
00:34:47.960 --> 00:34:51.260
 And many people would even argue that they don't even believe in Islam themselves

436
00:34:51.860 --> 00:34:56.699
 They're they're just using it as a tool to manipulate control people, you know while they're living

437
00:34:56.699 --> 00:35:00.240
 You know a luxurious lifestyle all these leaders and clerics which makes no sense

438
00:35:00.240 --> 00:35:04.580
 So as far as Iran this this this conflict is concerned

439
00:35:07.060 --> 00:35:12.260
 Strategically I'm not like we have the capability obviously America has a capability to

440
00:35:12.820 --> 00:35:17.740
 Bomb the hell at everybody at a very, you know, accurate way on a very accurate level

441
00:35:17.740 --> 00:35:23.420
 But at some point or you know, the questions come out then do you believe that Iran can outlast?

442
00:35:24.320 --> 00:35:29.980
 For example the US when it comes to the stockpile of missiles and and armaments that they have to resist

443
00:35:29.980 --> 00:35:32.120
 the US onslaught

444
00:35:34.270 --> 00:35:34.910
 Yes

445
00:35:35.630 --> 00:35:38.110
 But I think it's because they're just gonna hide

446
00:35:41.610 --> 00:35:44.850
 Yeah, they just go they've built deep bunkers

447
00:35:45.450 --> 00:35:50.930
 Do you do you so are you not buying the reports from Iran about how much stockpile they have?

448
00:35:51.750 --> 00:35:54.910
 Because they've reported they'll eventually run out. Yeah

449
00:35:55.710 --> 00:35:58.970
 It's not like they're making them right now while they're under attack, right?

450
00:35:58.970 --> 00:36:06.610
 Yeah, and like they're blowing up their ability to think more gotcha, um, but I do think they have a lot I

451
00:36:06.610 --> 00:36:08.990
 Think they've probably I mean they've shown they had a lot right?

452
00:36:09.610 --> 00:36:17.350
 Yeah, and like they're just gonna be come more reliant on like less high-tech weaponry and go

453
00:36:17.350 --> 00:36:19.010
 more towards drones

454
00:36:19.690 --> 00:36:26.170
 Do you think they've shown us everything they have you think they have more in terms of a technologically advanced weapons?

455
00:36:27.090 --> 00:36:28.610
 No, I don't I think

456
00:36:28.970 --> 00:36:34.110
 They probably their missiles can probably shoot shoot further than they stated they could

457
00:36:34.970 --> 00:36:38.390
 One that is the Diego Garcia, right? Yeah

458
00:36:38.390 --> 00:36:43.810
 Yeah, but then like you look at the accuracy of that when it was getting out one just fell out of the sky and the

459
00:36:43.810 --> 00:36:45.270
 Other that's yeah

460
00:36:45.270 --> 00:36:51.550
 It's like anything the furthest throwing a ball right the further you try and throw it the less accurate you become true

461
00:36:53.250 --> 00:36:57.410
 So yeah, let's talk about that real quick so I saw a video you put out about that

462
00:36:58.010 --> 00:37:03.410
 What is your take on that attack or a legit attack on Diego Garcia that missile?

463
00:37:03.730 --> 00:37:08.710
 Were they trying to you think show the world that look we have more range than you think

464
00:37:09.630 --> 00:37:12.990
 And there was another video out by somebody else that was like well

465
00:37:13.410 --> 00:37:18.790
 Maybe it got that distance because you know, they didn't have like an actual warhead on it

466
00:37:18.790 --> 00:37:23.810
 Or it was a smaller warhead for example, you know accounting for like mass and fuel and everything

467
00:37:23.810 --> 00:37:30.350
 Do you think for the UK should actually be concerned with the long-range capabilities of Iran's missiles for example

468
00:37:30.350 --> 00:37:33.790
 Or was this just kind of like another one of those?

469
00:37:35.510 --> 00:37:39.070
 What do you call it not I wouldn't say a false flag but but just basically another

470
00:37:39.070 --> 00:37:43.050
 Yeah, there you go symbolic gesture by Iran to say look what we can do

471
00:37:43.830 --> 00:37:50.430
 Yeah, I think that was most likely the move. I haven't seen the person talk about removing the warhead

472
00:37:50.430 --> 00:37:51.870
 That would kind of make sense

473
00:37:51.870 --> 00:37:54.780
 I don't know if they actually believed it would ever hit

474
00:37:55.790 --> 00:37:56.330
 anything

475
00:37:56.910 --> 00:37:59.830
 So removing the warhead could give it a bit of more range

476
00:37:59.830 --> 00:38:05.010
 But essentially if you wanted to shoot a rocket further, don't you just strap on more explosive, right?

477
00:38:08.210 --> 00:38:15.050
 Rocket physics like pretty simple when you get down to it. It's just yeah less weight more fuel force thrust

478
00:38:16.090 --> 00:38:16.630
 Yeah

479
00:38:16.630 --> 00:38:21.910
 Um, but yeah, I think it was more of like a hey look we could threaten Europe if we want to

480
00:38:23.690 --> 00:38:28.190
 Yeah, I don't I don't think they're gonna start shooting rockets towards Europe because

481
00:38:29.210 --> 00:38:33.450
 Much like Russia, right? I don't buy that Russia is intending to attack

482
00:38:33.970 --> 00:38:37.570
 NATO anytime soon because they just don't have the capabilities

483
00:38:37.570 --> 00:38:44.010
 I don't think we are foolish enough to think they have the ability to fight everybody. I don't think Iran

484
00:38:44.950 --> 00:38:52.510
 Mmm, at least the upper levels of the Iranian relationship are foolish enough to think that they could fight the entire world and win

485
00:38:53.250 --> 00:38:55.270
 Well, we assume we would hope

486
00:38:56.990 --> 00:38:58.870
 That actually brings up

487
00:38:59.470 --> 00:39:05.910
 That brings up an interesting question because you know, we brought up Russia a few times either preoccupied in the Ukraine

488
00:39:05.910 --> 00:39:10.610
 And it seems like right now they are reliant on a bit of what Iran can supply to them in terms of

489
00:39:11.130 --> 00:39:17.070
 Technologies, especially with their their cheap I don't even know how to pronounce it she heads of drones. Is that correct?

490
00:39:17.130 --> 00:39:24.010
 Yeah, I think it's I think that's something like that. Right? I'm horrible at pronouncing Middle Eastern names or Persian. So

491
00:39:24.010 --> 00:39:30.710
 So I do believe they Russia now produces them themselves main. Okay almost exclusively

492
00:39:31.290 --> 00:39:32.970
 they but then

493
00:39:33.770 --> 00:39:37.090
 It's pretty unclear how much they get in terms of like

494
00:39:37.650 --> 00:39:43.290
 Technology like they need electronics they can still get it from China obviously, but yeah

495
00:39:43.290 --> 00:39:49.250
 It's unclear what Iran was actually supplying Russia and whether this will take a big hit

496
00:39:49.250 --> 00:39:54.280
 But I do believe they were making most of their long-range drones themselves now

497
00:39:55.010 --> 00:39:58.780
 Hmm. So so so you believe possibly it might be possible that

498
00:39:59.050 --> 00:40:05.170
 Due to Iran being in the situation there are with the conflict with the US and Israel at the moment that it's totally

499
00:40:05.170 --> 00:40:13.310
 Pre-occupying them. They're no longer able to really be the partner that Russia needed and providing what the Russia needs to fight Ukraine. I

500
00:40:13.310 --> 00:40:18.090
 Think there'll be a degree that it will have an effect, but I don't think it would be that significant

501
00:40:18.090 --> 00:40:22.210
 I think the you Russia has like set themselves up pretty

502
00:40:23.490 --> 00:40:27.010
 Firmly to be self-sufficient at this point with

503
00:40:27.950 --> 00:40:30.430
 Imports probably coming mostly from China

504
00:40:31.210 --> 00:40:36.590
 Gotcha, so as far as Iran is concerned, it's hard to tell where this is gonna go, right?

505
00:40:38.250 --> 00:40:40.370
 It really is we don't we don't know how far

506
00:40:41.110 --> 00:40:47.270
 The US for example or their allies are actually willing to go to stamp out the regime and even then what does that look like?

507
00:40:47.570 --> 00:40:51.730
 You know, what kind of government's gonna be in place will they be friendly and for how long I mean

508
00:40:51.730 --> 00:40:54.490
 It's been proven the Middle East. We don't really see that happen too often

509
00:40:56.450 --> 00:41:03.470
 But it is interesting to see that a lot of the other neighboring Gulf states have become closer to the US or at least on the

510
00:41:03.470 --> 00:41:04.010
 surface

511
00:41:04.010 --> 00:41:06.530
 After all of this has been happening

512
00:41:07.190 --> 00:41:09.090
 Could that be a possibility?

513
00:41:09.390 --> 00:41:14.950
 moving forward to where with the stronger relationships that the surrounding nations have around Iran has become

514
00:41:15.430 --> 00:41:19.750
 Or begin to have a strong relationship with the US that even if the regime survives

515
00:41:19.750 --> 00:41:23.810
 That they will be able to be more controlled moving forward

516
00:41:25.190 --> 00:41:32.330
 Um, I think the initial reaction is like coming together because you're all sharing like a collective

517
00:41:33.530 --> 00:41:38.550
 Issue I think that if the missiles stop firing after a period of time

518
00:41:38.550 --> 00:41:43.130
 I think there would the GCC nations would start to turn on the US and start to

519
00:41:44.090 --> 00:41:49.030
 Like rest some of the blame on them for starting this like essentially starting this conflict

520
00:41:50.710 --> 00:41:52.770
 One of the things that I

521
00:41:52.770 --> 00:41:59.250
 Wrote about and thought was quite interesting is the relationship between these GCC nations and Ukraine

522
00:41:59.250 --> 00:42:06.710
 Because Ukraine has sent I think it's estimated to be around 200 people to help them with countering drones specifically and

523
00:42:07.850 --> 00:42:09.370
 I feel like

524
00:42:09.370 --> 00:42:10.530
 Middle Eastern leaders

525
00:42:11.370 --> 00:42:13.850
 Remember who helps them and I think they'll

526
00:42:14.950 --> 00:42:21.530
 Look on Ukraine very fondly for sending these people over to help them in their time of need and how that affects

527
00:42:21.530 --> 00:42:28.230
 Their relationship with Russia because the UAE especially is still like a big

528
00:42:28.230 --> 00:42:34.410
 Not supporter, but it's like the middle point right between the West and Russia. Lots of Russians go there

529
00:42:34.410 --> 00:42:36.650
 They still help Russia with banking

530
00:42:37.190 --> 00:42:41.650
 Etc and how kind of that relationship?

531
00:42:43.050 --> 00:42:47.190
 Falls out out of this like if they start to view Ukraine much more

532
00:42:47.930 --> 00:42:53.030
 Sympathetically like Ukraine came and helped them and then they're saying Russia essentially try to bully Ukraine

533
00:42:53.750 --> 00:42:57.230
 how they then react to Russia will be an interesting like

534
00:42:58.490 --> 00:43:00.150
 fall out from this

535
00:43:00.150 --> 00:43:05.430
 This is something that I was like pondering the other day. No, that's it. They send their trainers there

536
00:43:05.430 --> 00:43:09.410
 That's that's an interesting. That's interesting to think about actually

537
00:43:09.410 --> 00:43:16.050
 Because now it's now if that if that prediction or whatever you're thinking about becomes true

538
00:43:16.050 --> 00:43:21.930
 It does it does question what will happen in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia moving forward

539
00:43:22.810 --> 00:43:30.530
 Yeah, you know what that being said Daniel, let's let's transition out of Iran because I I think I think we've we've hit some points there

540
00:43:30.530 --> 00:43:34.570
 You've you've cleared some things up, especially when it comes to weaponry and etc

541
00:43:35.210 --> 00:43:35.690
 capabilities

542
00:43:37.870 --> 00:43:42.250
 Because right now we don't know what's gonna happen. We're all predicting correct

543
00:43:42.870 --> 00:43:46.310
 And if anything has been proof been proven in the Middle East is you know

544
00:43:46.310 --> 00:43:50.230
 There's long-standing conflicts between tribes, etc religion

545
00:43:50.230 --> 00:43:55.590
 I mean, I don't think there's ever gonna be any actual resolve there regardless outside of you know

546
00:43:55.590 --> 00:43:57.870
 the Western nations wanted to get rid of a

547
00:43:57.870 --> 00:43:59.890
 terrorist organization as they say

548
00:43:59.890 --> 00:44:05.170
 so I am interested in what you have to say about this moving on into Ukraine because

549
00:44:05.170 --> 00:44:06.810
 That conflicts been going on for a few years

550
00:44:06.810 --> 00:44:12.350
 I think it's very surprising to many that Ukraine has lasted as long as they have being they're

551
00:44:12.350 --> 00:44:16.250
 Considerably smaller nation with a lot less resources compared to Russia

552
00:44:18.030 --> 00:44:23.450
 Where do you think where do you think is gonna go do you think Russia's gonna eventually have to break down and say hey

553
00:44:23.450 --> 00:44:28.970
 You know, we're just gonna have to come to an agreement or do you think Putin's just so stubborn that he's so

554
00:44:28.970 --> 00:44:35.090
 Bent on leaving the legacy of reuniting his well modern version of the Russian Empire

555
00:44:36.250 --> 00:44:37.950
 Do but with that being said

556
00:44:37.950 --> 00:44:42.470
 Do you think Russia is gonna have to get to a point eventually where they're just gonna have to back out on this

557
00:44:42.470 --> 00:44:45.230
 And try to come to a some kind of a peace deal with Ukraine

558
00:44:50.170 --> 00:44:50.610
 right

559
00:44:52.430 --> 00:44:54.210
 The hard guy gauge right

560
00:44:54.870 --> 00:44:56.190
 Yeah, well, yeah

561
00:44:56.190 --> 00:44:59.870
 but one factor that I kind of have talked about before is

562
00:45:01.150 --> 00:45:02.030
 for potent

563
00:45:03.070 --> 00:45:06.590
 This is like it's not just legacy. It's life and death

564
00:45:07.350 --> 00:45:11.130
 Because if he fails here and he gets removed from power

565
00:45:11.130 --> 00:45:15.810
 It's probably his family. They will also feel the repercussions, right? Right

566
00:45:15.810 --> 00:45:17.530
 he has

567
00:45:17.530 --> 00:45:23.550
 There on top of him like he's built his entire Empire. He is his hidden children. He has his family's

568
00:45:24.790 --> 00:45:26.370
 multiple at this point

569
00:45:27.390 --> 00:45:28.050
 and

570
00:45:28.050 --> 00:45:32.210
 If his like Empire as it were once was to collapse

571
00:45:32.210 --> 00:45:34.070
 Whoever replaces him

572
00:45:34.630 --> 00:45:42.050
 You know, this has happened multiple times in Russia. They don't let the kids stay around right? They don't let the ears

573
00:45:42.050 --> 00:45:47.930
 Go peacefully into the book into the darkness. They a clean house. Yeah

574
00:45:48.250 --> 00:45:55.450
 Literally, so I think that's a significant factor in this like it isn't just about his legacy. Well that to him is a massive thing

575
00:45:57.650 --> 00:45:58.210
 there's

576
00:45:58.210 --> 00:46:04.050
 on top of that like the life of everyone he cares about because if he fails here

577
00:46:04.630 --> 00:46:06.370
 It's probably all over

578
00:46:07.130 --> 00:46:12.750
 So saying that I'm sorry. So are you saying that he's in a position where it's all or nothing?

579
00:46:14.010 --> 00:46:16.170
 Yeah, absolutely. I feel like I think he's

580
00:46:18.170 --> 00:46:22.270
 It's like cornered now he has no good options here if he

581
00:46:23.270 --> 00:46:29.410
 There's also like the economic factors within Russia and like the entire economies built around the war now

582
00:46:29.410 --> 00:46:36.390
 They can't essentially can't stop fighting otherwise everything collapses it's like a house of cards with the war at the bottom

583
00:46:36.390 --> 00:46:38.510
 so like

584
00:46:40.470 --> 00:46:41.830
 that's a

585
00:46:41.830 --> 00:46:46.170
 Huge issue for them and how they get out of that. I don't know

586
00:46:47.050 --> 00:46:54.030
 But then also what does victory look like for them because currently it's not going well

587
00:46:55.250 --> 00:46:57.290
 And you know, we've recently

588
00:46:57.290 --> 00:47:01.350
 Been seeing more and more dissent so to speak

589
00:47:02.010 --> 00:47:07.610
 we were seeing more people stand up and speak publicly and openly about Putin as

590
00:47:08.350 --> 00:47:13.250
 Russia themselves as you mentioned earlier about the economy like economically they're not doing very well

591
00:47:13.250 --> 00:47:17.930
 I mean, they're stuck in a wartime economy right now. So it's not like they could just turn it off. Anyway

592
00:47:20.070 --> 00:47:26.370
 So I mean could we possibly be seeing at this moment the the slow march to Putin's demise

593
00:47:27.290 --> 00:47:31.570
 You think eventually the people just gonna rise up and just say hey, we're done

594
00:47:31.570 --> 00:47:40.190
 Yeah, but I think it'll be the slowly slowly then all at once kind of situation where you just wake up one day and

595
00:47:40.190 --> 00:47:45.330
 He's been removed by some like other oligarch within the Russian leadership

596
00:47:46.230 --> 00:47:53.610
 Everyone loyal to him has disappeared and then we just have a new Russian government two days later. That's

597
00:47:53.610 --> 00:47:58.310
 Basically the same just wearing different clothes with a different leader doing the same shit

598
00:47:58.990 --> 00:48:02.050
 Whether that and that would likely lead to them leaving Ukraine

599
00:48:02.990 --> 00:48:08.930
 But you know, this would be some significant repercussions there. What are the interesting kind of?

600
00:48:09.870 --> 00:48:16.170
 Benefits for them economically is the conflict in Iran like Trump's removed all the sanctions on their oil

601
00:48:16.170 --> 00:48:19.430
 So now they can sell it again to certain countries. So

602
00:48:20.010 --> 00:48:23.230
 They are benefiting there and that's going to help their economy

603
00:48:23.610 --> 00:48:28.510
 whether it helps it enough is unlikely, but

604
00:48:28.510 --> 00:48:35.270
 You know, it's the factors that interesting what is from the outside looking in from someone who he analyzes stuff

605
00:48:35.270 --> 00:48:44.520
 Like what what is your what is your thought on on the Trump-Putin relationship here? I think

606
00:48:44.520 --> 00:48:47.900
 Trump thought they were closer than they were. Yeah

607
00:48:47.900 --> 00:48:51.460
 Yeah, I think Trump I think Trump Trump's

608
00:48:53.540 --> 00:49:01.680
 Style is to befriend people and like build actual solid connections with people right where they actually truly like each other and

609
00:49:02.160 --> 00:49:05.420
 They help each other and their friends and like it's a good strong bond

610
00:49:05.420 --> 00:49:14.020
 whereas he was dealing with an intelligence officer who right just says what he needs to say to get the job done and

611
00:49:14.020 --> 00:49:18.900
 Can look you did straight in the eyes and lie and build like and can also build that friendship

612
00:49:18.900 --> 00:49:23.720
 But it isn't the same Putin that is a

613
00:49:23.720 --> 00:49:30.620
 Very long-lasting like his intelligence officer. He knows what he's doing. Yeah, he played the game. He needed to play and

614
00:49:30.620 --> 00:49:35.000
 Yeah, I think I think Trump thought he had more sway with Putin

615
00:49:35.000 --> 00:49:36.000
 personally

616
00:49:36.540 --> 00:49:37.720
 Than he did

617
00:49:38.440 --> 00:49:39.480
 Hmm interesting

618
00:49:40.420 --> 00:49:43.020
 I don't I I'm gonna have to agree with you there

619
00:49:43.020 --> 00:49:47.280
 I think a lot of people feel to remember where Putin came from how he came to power

620
00:49:47.280 --> 00:49:49.640
 You know, it was a KGB operative

621
00:49:51.220 --> 00:49:52.900
 That he was in

622
00:49:52.900 --> 00:49:59.180
 It was in East Germany when the Soviet Union fell one thing. It's like it's in quite a few books

623
00:49:59.180 --> 00:50:01.460
 They talk about it is he

624
00:50:02.420 --> 00:50:11.680
 Still remembers being betrayed by the Soviet leadership. So they were in a spurt East Berlin, I believe and

625
00:50:11.680 --> 00:50:18.440
 Union fell apart and they were like calling out Moscow to be like, what are we gonna do and Moscow just didn't answer the calls

626
00:50:18.440 --> 00:50:23.490
 so he he remembers that betrayal apparently and is like

627
00:50:25.020 --> 00:50:27.660
 Yeah, when it comes when it comes to Ukraine

628
00:50:28.320 --> 00:50:30.200
 Look, I think well first off

629
00:50:30.200 --> 00:50:35.560
 Let me let me just say that I I think I agree with your assessment and saying this is gonna be a long slow

630
00:50:35.560 --> 00:50:38.060
 Change for Putin, especially if he's not successful in Ukraine

631
00:50:39.700 --> 00:50:40.010
 A

632
00:50:40.860 --> 00:50:46.700
 Honest question by the way, how important is is it for Ukraine to survive against Russia?

633
00:50:46.720 --> 00:50:51.020
 and this this isn't me being like I don't have a heart for you can it's just

634
00:50:51.020 --> 00:50:58.580
 Just a cold hard assessment like how important is is it for Ukraine to survive this because it seems like most of Europe

635
00:50:58.580 --> 00:51:00.840
 Honestly from from my perspective

636
00:51:00.840 --> 00:51:06.300
 They weren't really keen to jump in and help Ukraine from the outset

637
00:51:06.300 --> 00:51:09.340
 They were kind of on the outside looking and say yeah, we might send you some money

638
00:51:09.340 --> 00:51:12.020
 We might send you this but nobody nobody put their foot down

639
00:51:12.840 --> 00:51:18.420
 Against Russia and say hey, you're not doing this. They could have they could have stopped this a long time ago

640
00:51:18.420 --> 00:51:22.500
 But they chose not to so it really comes to question

641
00:51:22.500 --> 00:51:27.040
 Like how important is Ukraine as a player in all this? Like does Europe really care?

642
00:51:27.920 --> 00:51:32.820
 Does it really matter if Ukraine survives this or if or is everybody get behind Ukraine?

643
00:51:32.820 --> 00:51:37.320
 Just try to say yeah, we stand up to to Putin but no one's really doing anything

644
00:51:37.940 --> 00:51:43.660
 What is your thoughts on this? Like is you is Ukraine really as big of a piece as everybody's trying to make it out to be?

645
00:51:45.280 --> 00:51:46.900
 so I think there's like the

646
00:51:48.220 --> 00:51:53.940
 Call it like technical level considerations. Okay, we're pretty the 2022 invasion

647
00:51:53.940 --> 00:51:57.880
 Europe relied on Russian gas. So right

648
00:51:57.880 --> 00:52:01.880
 They and Russia played this was a brilliant move by

649
00:52:01.880 --> 00:52:05.500
 To get Europe dependent on cheap Russian gas

650
00:52:05.500 --> 00:52:11.880
 So they couldn't really do anything because they were so fearful of losing all of this energy, right?

651
00:52:12.520 --> 00:52:14.720
 That obviously changed post 2022

652
00:52:15.860 --> 00:52:19.920
 And now they're a lot less reliant, which is great in my opinion

653
00:52:19.920 --> 00:52:24.620
 Well, some countries are still reliant like Hungary and Slovakia and you still like currently they're

654
00:52:25.680 --> 00:52:29.360
 Really upset because a key pipeline got blown up by Russia and

655
00:52:29.880 --> 00:52:35.540
 Ukraine refuses to go and fix it because the last two times they tried they lost people and

656
00:52:35.540 --> 00:52:39.840
 Hungary's essentially blaming Ukraine for them not having energy, but that's

657
00:52:41.000 --> 00:52:46.880
 Also an issue because he's about to lose his election and there's other things there. But um, right another consider

658
00:52:46.880 --> 00:52:47.760
 Sorry

659
00:52:51.680 --> 00:52:56.920
 Another consideration that I kind of look at the way I kind of look at it this is

660
00:52:58.360 --> 00:53:00.220
 There's going to be ramifications

661
00:53:00.860 --> 00:53:06.800
 Maybe not so much anymore because the West has helped Ukraine, but initially at the start it was

662
00:53:07.360 --> 00:53:13.960
 The way I looked at it was if the West doesn't support Ukraine against Russia in our

663
00:53:13.960 --> 00:53:17.260
 Does anyone rely on the West to be supported?

664
00:53:18.800 --> 00:53:20.020
 the US especially

665
00:53:20.020 --> 00:53:27.900
 No, there's people talked about this when the US kind of draw down and their support of the SDF in

666
00:53:27.900 --> 00:53:29.970
 Eastern Syria or North Syria

667
00:53:30.880 --> 00:53:37.490
 It's like is the US a trustworthy partner to go into this with right because if they're going to

668
00:53:38.680 --> 00:53:39.960
 leave at the like

669
00:53:39.960 --> 00:53:45.780
 The ultimate moment when you need them the most and what good are they? Why would you work with them?

670
00:53:45.780 --> 00:53:51.540
 Why would you help them achieve their goals in your country if they're just going to abandon you when push comes to shove?

671
00:53:52.560 --> 00:53:55.380
 I think Ukraine was a

672
00:53:55.380 --> 00:54:03.220
 Very big test of that whether the West abandoned Ukraine and it's like moment of need and let Russia roll in

673
00:54:05.560 --> 00:54:06.080
 I

674
00:54:06.080 --> 00:54:09.940
 Don't think the West thought Ukraine would hold out even

675
00:54:09.960 --> 00:54:14.400
 Anywhere near as long as it is now, but at the start, I don't think they had that much faith

676
00:54:14.400 --> 00:54:21.200
 They hadn't really given them that much. I think they gave him them like anti-tank weapons right a month before

677
00:54:21.820 --> 00:54:23.520
 Russia rolled the tanks over the borders

678
00:54:23.520 --> 00:54:26.440
 But I don't think they thought they would hold out this much

679
00:54:26.440 --> 00:54:33.020
 But they wanted to like at least show that they were trying to support them and now they actually are and I think these

680
00:54:33.020 --> 00:54:35.080
 Flow and effects here to like Taiwan, especially

681
00:54:35.760 --> 00:54:41.960
 China was almost certainly watching how the West reacted. Oh absolutely. Yeah

682
00:54:41.960 --> 00:54:49.120
 Yeah, engaging that of like how was the West going to going to react if we try and take Taiwan if the West had

683
00:54:49.120 --> 00:54:51.960
 Not stepped up and supported Ukraine at all

684
00:54:52.640 --> 00:54:55.880
 I'd say they probably would have already taken Taiwan because

685
00:54:56.640 --> 00:55:03.140
 Yeah, if you put them under pressure and they don't support and what's stopping you right?

686
00:55:05.080 --> 00:55:12.760
 Yeah, and I think the amount of support that the West gave to Ukraine has made China rethink and recalibrate

687
00:55:12.760 --> 00:55:14.320
 How it's going to take Taiwan?

688
00:55:15.320 --> 00:55:16.500
 There's also

689
00:55:16.500 --> 00:55:22.960
 Like the actual military changes of like the conflict of like how drones have changed warfare

690
00:55:22.960 --> 00:55:28.780
 I think Ukraine's ability to innovate and come up with new ways to use these weapons

691
00:55:28.780 --> 00:55:34.680
 Has been probably one of the key factors that's helped them win this war without drones

692
00:55:35.080 --> 00:55:37.630
 I don't think they would have won if you just if

693
00:55:38.480 --> 00:55:43.780
 Drones didn't exist as a technology. Yeah, and they had to fight

694
00:55:43.780 --> 00:55:46.220
 without like essentially

695
00:55:46.220 --> 00:55:48.500
 Tank to tank man to man

696
00:55:48.500 --> 00:55:54.030
 They wouldn't I can steamroll them with just people but they can replace people with drones and

697
00:55:54.640 --> 00:55:56.590
 It gives them a cheap alternative to

698
00:55:57.260 --> 00:56:03.220
 Kill Russians in the thousands and I think that also has flow and effects to Taiwan. Like we're saying

699
00:56:03.980 --> 00:56:06.280
 Audreau Andrew Andrew

700
00:56:06.280 --> 00:56:07.000
 the

701
00:56:07.000 --> 00:56:10.100
 Defense manufacturing company giving weapons to Taiwan

702
00:56:10.100 --> 00:56:11.800
 Oh in there, yeah

703
00:56:11.800 --> 00:56:18.610
 They're like battle plan and what they've talked about is essentially turning the Straits of Taiwan into an absolute death pit

704
00:56:19.800 --> 00:56:24.620
 And drones are the perfect weapon for that because they're cheap fast hard to stop right?

705
00:56:24.760 --> 00:56:29.440
 That's that's okay. Those are very good points and I was with you on that from the beginning

706
00:56:29.440 --> 00:56:34.980
 When it came to this conflict and I've said it myself China's watching how we're all going to react and

707
00:56:35.700 --> 00:56:38.200
 It happened again when the US

708
00:56:38.200 --> 00:56:42.880
 Decided that they were going to attack Iran because all of a sudden China pulled back again

709
00:56:42.880 --> 00:56:48.260
 In fact a lot of activities that were going on over there and the you know, Pacific region kind of just stopped

710
00:56:48.260 --> 00:56:53.400
 They just kind of halted and say okay, what's happening here? Like maybe the maybe Trump really is crazy, man

711
00:56:53.400 --> 00:56:56.500
 You know, maybe he really will do what he says. So

712
00:56:56.500 --> 00:57:02.600
 That's a possibility but yeah, you know great point about what you said about drones a lot of people overlook how that has changed the face

713
00:57:02.600 --> 00:57:05.480
 Of warfare, you know because you can produce some cheap

714
00:57:05.480 --> 00:57:08.640
 I mean Iran has proven that right and then China

715
00:57:08.640 --> 00:57:13.040
 I mean their capacity to produce cheap drones is I mean we can't ignore that either

716
00:57:13.040 --> 00:57:15.060
 So it's gonna be interesting to see

717
00:57:16.120 --> 00:57:26.480
 Absolutely, yeah, they are I mean literally so those are all really good points. Um, I

718
00:57:26.480 --> 00:57:31.100
 We're gonna get off off this pretty soon, but you know what the whole thing with with Ukraine

719
00:57:31.840 --> 00:57:33.880
 what I what I

720
00:57:33.880 --> 00:57:35.640
 what I wonder is this if

721
00:57:36.500 --> 00:57:42.420
 Do you think the European nations were worried at all that if Putin?

722
00:57:43.520 --> 00:57:46.940
 become well in the beginning anyway, if he became successful and

723
00:57:46.940 --> 00:57:47.780
 quickly

724
00:57:47.780 --> 00:57:49.740
 dispatching like

725
00:57:49.740 --> 00:57:50.940
 Ukraine for example

726
00:57:50.940 --> 00:57:57.620
 Was there any talks or fear that you know of of well if if Russia is hell-bent on doing this and this happens quickly

727
00:57:57.620 --> 00:58:00.940
 What's gonna stop them from going to the next territory?

728
00:58:00.940 --> 00:58:08.640
 They want to take over like was there ever that fear you think about Russia just not stopping and just continuing to take over territories

729
00:58:09.360 --> 00:58:12.320
 Because it seems like Ukraine was kind of the test for that

730
00:58:14.480 --> 00:58:15.440
 um, I

731
00:58:15.440 --> 00:58:19.160
 Think there's probably the fear of that but it wouldn't be a NATO country

732
00:58:19.160 --> 00:58:24.060
 I think the next country that they would try and take would be Georgia, right?

733
00:58:24.520 --> 00:58:29.100
 You know, they've already taken parts of it. Yeah back in 2008. I believe

734
00:58:30.860 --> 00:58:36.160
 Maybe like Kazakhstan one of the other star nations afterwards. I don't think I

735
00:58:37.000 --> 00:58:39.800
 Don't think NATO was truly worried. They would have taken a turn

736
00:58:42.120 --> 00:58:42.680
 and

737
00:58:42.680 --> 00:58:48.620
 Then saying the Russian military's performance on the battlefield. I think only reassured them and of that

738
00:58:49.160 --> 00:58:50.580
 there's like

739
00:58:50.580 --> 00:58:52.600
 Baltic nations quite often talk about

740
00:58:53.220 --> 00:58:58.420
 Grey zone activity and they worry that Russia will try and storm over the border, but I don't think that is

741
00:59:00.680 --> 00:59:03.100
 a legitimate concern like I don't think

742
00:59:03.660 --> 00:59:06.520
 NATO plan is that as a whole believe Russia is

743
00:59:07.300 --> 00:59:10.000
 currently intending to try that

744
00:59:10.520 --> 00:59:17.100
 Just because you know fighting Ukraine has been hard enough their military hasn't performed to the levels it probably should have

745
00:59:18.060 --> 00:59:21.780
 Fighting the entirety of NATO with or without the u.s

746
00:59:21.780 --> 00:59:25.780
 Would be a significant task like the german military is still

747
00:59:26.480 --> 00:59:30.180
 Massive the rest of turkish the turkish army is huge

748
00:59:30.180 --> 00:59:36.140
 Yeah, and also battle-tested like they fought in in syria a lot

749
00:59:36.140 --> 00:59:37.660
 They know how to fight

750
00:59:37.660 --> 00:59:40.040
 Yeah, I think yeah

751
00:59:40.040 --> 00:59:46.240
 I know poland was very vocal for a long time about actually wanting to move in

752
00:59:46.240 --> 00:59:51.660
 I think poland probably wants to fight russia at this point. Um, yeah, they've definitely

753
00:59:52.480 --> 00:59:53.740
 looked at cases

754
00:59:54.680 --> 00:59:57.600
 Yeah, and from people that i've talked to in ukraine

755
00:59:58.920 --> 01:00:03.380
 There's a lot of polish speaking people walking about in civilian clothing. Oh, yeah

756
01:00:04.320 --> 01:00:05.520
 Yeah, okay

757
01:00:05.520 --> 01:00:10.180
 A lot of a lot of polish. Yeah gotcha. It's typical to them. It's the

758
01:00:10.180 --> 01:00:15.700
 It's their constant threat, right? Yeah. Yeah. No, absolutely. They are in nato, but yeah

759
01:00:16.240 --> 01:00:22.310
 I mean, they're gonna they're making their military bigger stronger. They're ensuring that russia never thinks about it

760
01:00:22.820 --> 01:00:28.080
 Yes, absolutely. That's how you ensure your security right you make your military so damn scary

761
01:00:28.720 --> 01:00:31.000
 That they don't even dream of trying to fight

762
01:00:31.520 --> 01:00:34.470
 It's it's just such an interesting situation to me

763
01:00:34.780 --> 01:00:38.280
 Um, because russia has always put this perception of big powerful

764
01:00:38.280 --> 01:00:43.160
 You know just mechanically sound like well put together oil machine, right?

765
01:00:43.160 --> 01:00:49.000
 And then we're just seeing how they they can't even deal with the country the size of ukraine like their military

766
01:00:49.000 --> 01:00:52.240
 The logistics behind it everything is like they cannot

767
01:00:52.900 --> 01:00:58.240
 Keep it together to the degree that they're through the degree that they're projecting out to the world

768
01:00:58.760 --> 01:01:03.720
 You know, so it's like how much of a superpower is russia really anymore is is a question

769
01:01:04.600 --> 01:01:10.360
 But I think that also comes down to um, actually there's a difference between operations and

770
01:01:10.920 --> 01:01:17.260
 Um exercises, right? Okay, you know russia for years exercised large-scale conflict, but they never had to

771
01:01:17.680 --> 01:01:22.160
 force project large numbers of troops and maintain logistics

772
01:01:22.160 --> 01:01:25.520
 In a wartime scenario over a long period of time true

773
01:01:25.520 --> 01:01:27.980
 um, and one thing I think

774
01:01:28.600 --> 01:01:32.360
 They always talk like military planners always talk about it that like logistics is

775
01:01:32.740 --> 01:01:38.460
 The absolute number one most important thing to get right and that's what let russia down at the start

776
01:01:38.460 --> 01:01:45.700
 They just didn't have the logistics capacity to be bringing up fuel ammunition and more people keep the supplies going

777
01:01:45.700 --> 01:01:48.420
 As fast as they were moving. Yeah, like they're

778
01:01:49.200 --> 01:01:52.540
 Actual tactical level units were able to push forward

779
01:01:52.540 --> 01:01:56.860
 But they just ran out of fuel because you know tanks burn through diesel

780
01:01:58.360 --> 01:02:04.080
 Guns shoot ammo extremely quickly. So you very quickly need more stuff and if you can't get resupplied

781
01:02:04.720 --> 01:02:07.120
 You're also in the defender's home territory

782
01:02:07.120 --> 01:02:12.860
 So, yeah, they're just there waiting for you this literally just expose their ability to actually like support their own actions

783
01:02:13.440 --> 01:02:17.560
 So it wasn't necessarily the the the actual units themselves their in capabilities

784
01:02:17.560 --> 01:02:22.220
 It was more about the logistics the ability to support what's happening, right?

785
01:02:22.720 --> 01:02:29.140
 I think there was also like tactical level failings of like, um command and control within their conscripted units

786
01:02:29.140 --> 01:02:35.400
 Um, you know like these stories from captioned soldiers early on saying like they didn't even know

787
01:02:35.400 --> 01:02:40.960
 They were told they were going on an exercise they were put into the back of like troop moving trucks

788
01:02:41.940 --> 01:02:47.620
 Driven with the like flaps down so they don't even know where they're going. Then suddenly all their phones were taken off them

789
01:02:48.200 --> 01:02:50.680
 They were handed magazines with live ammunition

790
01:02:50.680 --> 01:02:55.660
 Wow, and they still thought it was an exercise and then all of a sudden they're getting ambushed by ukrainians

791
01:02:57.000 --> 01:03:02.600
 Yeah, that I mean that doesn't help the public support at all either uh in russia

792
01:03:03.920 --> 01:03:04.360
 well

793
01:03:05.880 --> 01:03:09.800
 Hopefully this whole thing gets resolved sooner than later. I mean like I said, it's already been going on over four years

794
01:03:10.880 --> 01:03:13.440
 I wish the best for ukraine, but yeah

795
01:03:14.080 --> 01:03:16.160
 All right. Let's let's

796
01:03:16.160 --> 01:03:21.420
 Go ahead dino, but I was gonna say I just I fear it's gonna be a a long drawn out style, mate

797
01:03:21.420 --> 01:03:22.980
 Yeah, unfortunately

798
01:03:24.080 --> 01:03:29.680
 Uh, and it could be never ending depending on how much of an appetite everybody has to help ukraine in terms of funding

799
01:03:29.680 --> 01:03:31.320
 And uh munitions, right?

800
01:03:31.320 --> 01:03:35.660
 So, you know once that drives up becoming much more self-sufficient

801
01:03:36.680 --> 01:03:38.660
 They are they are

802
01:03:38.660 --> 01:03:41.520
 Um, well if anything, this is definitely hard in ukraine even more

803
01:03:41.520 --> 01:03:46.700
 I mean this is this is definitely sort of in a position to you know, build up their capabilities

804
01:03:46.700 --> 01:03:52.520
 Understand how to approach and resist and and become like you said just a much stronger tougher nation

805
01:03:53.780 --> 01:03:54.260
 so

806
01:03:54.260 --> 01:03:58.740
 It's interesting but at the same time everybody wants us to end this but it's gone on long enough putin

807
01:03:59.860 --> 01:04:02.480
 Something something's got to give for sure for sure

808
01:04:03.300 --> 01:04:07.760
 Okay, sir. Let's let's talk. Let's talk osint. Let's talk. Let's let's let's switch gears here

809
01:04:07.760 --> 01:04:11.240
 one of the things I did want to talk about is after we got through that is

810
01:04:12.000 --> 01:04:12.960
 we see

811
01:04:13.780 --> 01:04:21.440
 We see a lot of these osint accounts first off. Let's define osint right open source intelligence, right?

812
01:04:21.880 --> 01:04:26.060
 So a lot of a lot of what can be done is based on what is available out there

813
01:04:26.620 --> 01:04:29.120
 Mostly to the public I know there's tools out there that

814
01:04:29.680 --> 01:04:35.540
 Not necessarily like readily available, but you could get them or get your hands on them to help out

815
01:04:36.680 --> 01:04:38.140
 So here here it is

816
01:04:38.140 --> 01:04:41.680
 We're just going to talk about what we're seeing in social media and in the media in general

817
01:04:41.680 --> 01:04:47.260
 We have a lot of these so-called osint accounts for example on social media or or

818
01:04:47.260 --> 01:04:49.740
 These pseudo journalists who claim that they have

819
01:04:49.740 --> 01:04:54.860
 You know osint capabilities and they're just spreading a bunch of slop and misinformation

820
01:04:54.860 --> 01:04:55.660
 Right

821
01:04:56.720 --> 01:05:02.200
 Can you help everybody understand how we can identify who might be a real?

822
01:05:02.860 --> 01:05:07.260
 Osint source or osint account to where you know something to rely on to actually get info

823
01:05:07.260 --> 01:05:13.660
 Rather than someone who's just copying and pasting info or just showing nothing but photos and pictures without any real assessment or given

824
01:05:13.660 --> 01:05:15.820
 As you say the so what behind it?

825
01:05:17.220 --> 01:05:17.520
 um

826
01:05:17.520 --> 01:05:22.460
 How are we able to decipher like who the real osint accounts are out there in social media or in media in general?

827
01:05:22.460 --> 01:05:24.020
 Versus those who are just grifting

828
01:05:26.280 --> 01:05:30.500
 I know I can see you've been talking to kermit. Oh look, I want to be honest

829
01:05:30.500 --> 01:05:35.420
 I talk I i i've been asking this a lot, uh, even without kermit, but when we do discuss

830
01:05:35.420 --> 01:05:37.660
 Trust me. This does come up

831
01:05:38.700 --> 01:05:42.500
 Especially this weekend. I feel like every thing I see on the internet

832
01:05:43.280 --> 01:05:48.420
 Is him being like ripping it? Oh, I've seen i've seen him much more active in his responses lately. Yeah

833
01:05:48.420 --> 01:05:49.000
 Yeah

834
01:05:49.000 --> 01:05:52.000
 Like over the last couple of days for some reason

835
01:05:52.800 --> 01:05:53.240
 um

836
01:05:53.240 --> 01:05:55.620
 Yeah, so open source intelligence

837
01:05:56.280 --> 01:06:01.140
 Is as you said is information that can be collected publicly. It doesn't require

838
01:06:01.140 --> 01:06:03.560
 any kind of um

839
01:06:03.560 --> 01:06:10.440
 malicious activity to get well, I can actually um, but it can also involve paid for things so you can still pay for

840
01:06:10.440 --> 01:06:12.360
 um, especially like

841
01:06:12.360 --> 01:06:13.840
 business information

842
01:06:14.440 --> 01:06:19.240
 Things behind paywalls they can it still gets classed as open source intelligence

843
01:06:19.800 --> 01:06:27.480
 Um how to identify real osin accounts that is extremely tough. Um, I think social media is

844
01:06:28.120 --> 01:06:29.660
 not designed

845
01:06:30.760 --> 01:06:35.580
 X especially right the worst x is not designed for

846
01:06:36.820 --> 01:06:39.920
 Intelligence type product it's designed for news

847
01:06:39.920 --> 01:06:47.340
 Um, this is my biggest issue with the platform. It's it's all about who can get things out the fastest. Yes

848
01:06:47.340 --> 01:06:48.980
 Who's first so it

849
01:06:48.980 --> 01:06:55.600
 Yeah, and it essentially requires people to copy and paste reword copy and paste go

850
01:06:57.080 --> 01:06:57.800
 Yeah

851
01:06:58.940 --> 01:07:05.180
 How you identify them is probably around just watching them for a while seeing what they do seeing how they

852
01:07:05.180 --> 01:07:08.780
 They operate what they're putting out whether they are providing

853
01:07:08.780 --> 01:07:09.780
 value

854
01:07:10.460 --> 01:07:11.800
 because as you said

855
01:07:11.800 --> 01:07:18.030
 Intelligence is information that has been analyzed in a set and it provides somewhat some kind of so what

856
01:07:18.320 --> 01:07:20.200
 Assessment like so what does that actually mean?

857
01:07:23.150 --> 01:07:23.410
 um

858
01:07:23.410 --> 01:07:24.030
 yeah, and it should

859
01:07:24.650 --> 01:07:28.090
 If it's going to be proper intelligence, it should be like very clear

860
01:07:28.090 --> 01:07:32.390
 What is the information that was collected and what is the assessment parts of it?

861
01:07:32.570 --> 01:07:36.240
 right because otherwise it becomes quite muddled and that's where you get like

862
01:07:37.170 --> 01:07:40.790
 Lots of these accounts. It'll be a mixture of their opinion

863
01:07:40.790 --> 01:07:43.090
 And the information that they got

864
01:07:43.090 --> 01:07:45.910
 And then it becomes a bit confusing as to what?

865
01:07:46.530 --> 01:07:52.070
 Is real and what's just their opinion that they're adding on to it. Um extremely hard on x

866
01:07:52.070 --> 01:07:54.070
 um, don't get me wrong, I

867
01:07:55.010 --> 01:07:59.990
 Don't really think I don't think any of the big accounts are very good at providing assessments

868
01:07:59.990 --> 01:08:02.390
 providing a so what um

869
01:08:03.650 --> 01:08:04.390
 I know

870
01:08:05.030 --> 01:08:09.510
 Kevin has a massive issue with osn't defender. Um, yeah that just came

871
01:08:12.500 --> 01:08:12.980
 He

872
01:08:13.680 --> 01:08:20.080
 I've never spoken to the guy. Um, I know a guy that helps him out who does write some good stuff. Yeah, um

873
01:08:21.359 --> 01:08:23.140
 But yeah, it's

874
01:08:23.140 --> 01:08:27.560
 It's tough. I don't think I don't think social media is designed for I think if you want proper like

875
01:08:28.200 --> 01:08:34.000
 Actual intelligence reporting you can't really get it on x. You probably need to be getting it off like sub stack

876
01:08:34.000 --> 01:08:37.000
 okay, instagram's better because you can provide like

877
01:08:38.220 --> 01:08:42.100
 Actually written like long form written content. Um

878
01:08:42.200 --> 01:08:47.380
 Yeah, and to that and to that point I think sub stack does a better a better job at that as well

879
01:08:47.380 --> 01:08:53.310
 You know as far as allowing somebody to be able to write long form articles and notes and opinions for sure

880
01:08:54.200 --> 01:08:58.100
 But then it's also like is that what people want? Um

881
01:08:58.100 --> 01:09:01.800
 Because like even within like actual intelligence customers

882
01:09:03.479 --> 01:09:05.819
 Most intelligence people most

883
01:09:05.819 --> 01:09:07.939
 recipients of intelligence

884
01:09:07.939 --> 01:09:14.479
 Aren't reading the full reports the most people that read actual intelligence reports are just other intel nerds

885
01:09:15.000 --> 01:09:18.220
 Because we're the only people with the time and the effort to actually do it

886
01:09:18.740 --> 01:09:23.399
 Everyone else is just reading the executive summary right and moving on. No, no, you're right

887
01:09:23.399 --> 01:09:29.080
 You're right. Yeah, and like and that's but that's how your intelligence product should be written. So like I

888
01:09:29.680 --> 01:09:30.939
 try to have

889
01:09:30.939 --> 01:09:32.920
 a bluff in every

890
01:09:32.920 --> 01:09:37.359
 The second slide of every post that's just like a paragraph. It's like if you just read this

891
01:09:37.939 --> 01:09:44.100
 You should understand everything that's in here. You can move on with your life because I know people don't have five minutes to read every post

892
01:09:45.080 --> 01:09:46.779
 Um look if they get 30 seconds

893
01:09:47.479 --> 01:09:50.140
 Yeah, and that's exactly it. Um

894
01:09:50.140 --> 01:09:53.880
 So I don't know it's very hard and it comes down to whether people actually want to

895
01:09:53.880 --> 01:09:57.720
 To learn about what's going on or they're just wanting to get the headlines

896
01:09:59.240 --> 01:10:00.140
 Um, yes

897
01:10:00.140 --> 01:10:03.820
 You're correct. I've always said people live on the surface of a headline

898
01:10:04.260 --> 01:10:06.800
 Literally live on the surface of headlines. They don't want to dive any deeper

899
01:10:07.700 --> 01:10:08.100
 um

900
01:10:08.100 --> 01:10:10.080
 You made some good points because it is hard to decipher

901
01:10:10.080 --> 01:10:15.880
 But I I I am not considering myself in osint. I guess i'm not that's not my background that you guys came from a different

902
01:10:15.880 --> 01:10:17.620
 You know you have the training etc

903
01:10:18.680 --> 01:10:19.080
 but

904
01:10:19.080 --> 01:10:22.740
 The reality is like when I see an x account that claims to be an osint account

905
01:10:22.740 --> 01:10:26.900
 It's like they're not giving you the summary. They're not giving you like like you said

906
01:10:26.900 --> 01:10:28.180
 Here's what happened now

907
01:10:28.180 --> 01:10:33.140
 This is what it might might mean what what could you know could be the implications of

908
01:10:33.140 --> 01:10:37.860
 And you're and you're correct, you know, you see you see a lot of opinions opinion pieces, right

909
01:10:38.820 --> 01:10:40.120
 But let me ask you directly

910
01:10:41.140 --> 01:10:44.180
 Are intelligence professionals supposed to have an opinion at all?

911
01:10:44.180 --> 01:10:47.800
 I mean, i'm sure you do but you don't necessarily you know put it out there, right?

912
01:10:47.900 --> 01:10:52.260
 And and the reason being what just to give the information so other people can make their own decisions

913
01:10:54.630 --> 01:10:54.990
 um

914
01:10:55.650 --> 01:10:56.670
 I mean, yeah

915
01:10:57.050 --> 01:11:02.830
 Sorry was the question should intelligence professionals like well, it's kind of a it was kind of a it's kind of a two thing

916
01:11:02.830 --> 01:11:05.070
 Two part of there so it's like

917
01:11:06.410 --> 01:11:12.230
 Are intelligence people such as yourself for example, you guys were trained to do what you do

918
01:11:12.230 --> 01:11:15.390
 Are you supposed to hold an opinion? And if you do

919
01:11:16.190 --> 01:11:18.650
 Are are you not supposed to?

920
01:11:18.770 --> 01:11:24.490
 Express that opinion out there like especially on social media or should you always hold that back just so that the information is front center

921
01:11:24.490 --> 01:11:27.210
 So others can form their own opinions or assessments

922
01:11:28.810 --> 01:11:29.610
 you

923
01:11:30.210 --> 01:11:36.250
 If it's intelligence it should have its assess an assessment. It shouldn't be an opinion. Sure your assessment

924
01:11:36.890 --> 01:11:37.930
 Yeah, it should

925
01:11:38.570 --> 01:11:45.450
 Everyone has bias which is their opinion. Yes, but it should be your assessment of what you've read understood from other things

926
01:11:45.450 --> 01:11:47.430
 And what you think it actually means?

927
01:11:47.810 --> 01:11:51.310
 Intelligence should be like bipartisan. It shouldn't have

928
01:11:51.310 --> 01:11:56.750
 That type of sway to it. Um, which you know, it's pretty common on social media. So yes

929
01:11:56.750 --> 01:11:57.670
 Yeah

930
01:11:58.130 --> 01:12:01.970
 It's pretty tough. But um, do you find it tough to hold back your opinions?

931
01:12:02.330 --> 01:12:05.710
 Also, I mean that that's kind of part of the question. I just wasn't asking directly

932
01:12:05.710 --> 01:12:09.310
 I guess is it hard for someone like like you for example?

933
01:12:09.590 --> 01:12:14.810
 Because with your experience everything that you and others like you see a lot of you have served in the military

934
01:12:14.810 --> 01:12:18.610
 You've been deployed like do you not form an opinion yourself?

935
01:12:18.610 --> 01:12:23.550
 Is it did you find it hard at times to keep your own opinions yourself while you're giving the information?

936
01:12:24.070 --> 01:12:25.990
 About the situation out there

937
01:12:26.670 --> 01:12:28.510
 Um, not really because it's no

938
01:12:29.190 --> 01:12:32.890
 It's how i've spent most of my life now got it

939
01:12:32.890 --> 01:12:35.350
 But like it definitely like forms

940
01:12:36.950 --> 01:12:40.170
 Before it forms everything right? Yeah

941
01:12:40.170 --> 01:12:47.050
 Because I know like my views on certain conflicts around the world are not the same views held by most people

942
01:12:47.870 --> 01:12:50.630
 um, especially in this day and age in the uk

943
01:12:51.270 --> 01:12:52.470
 um, and like

944
01:12:52.470 --> 01:12:56.630
 In that kind of realm, I just keep my opinion to myself because

945
01:12:56.630 --> 01:12:59.430
 There's no point having that argument with these people

946
01:13:00.150 --> 01:13:02.790
 Like that's not going to help anything. I could sit there

947
01:13:02.790 --> 01:13:07.210
 and give them a 30 minute absolute berating on

948
01:13:07.210 --> 01:13:13.790
 Why I think certain things are true and correct and right, but it's not going to change their point. Um

949
01:13:13.790 --> 01:13:19.670
 Understood then there's my assessment on what I think might happen, but that is purely looking at

950
01:13:20.490 --> 01:13:22.030
 This has happened

951
01:13:23.010 --> 01:13:26.350
 So I think this could be the follow-on effect because of

952
01:13:26.970 --> 01:13:33.430
 Past form things that have happened in the past how people act what human nature kind of feeds in etc

953
01:13:34.170 --> 01:13:34.770
 so

954
01:13:35.490 --> 01:13:42.230
 So anybody looking for for real information from an account that would be considered osin should be able to identify

955
01:13:42.790 --> 01:13:43.350
 that

956
01:13:43.350 --> 01:13:48.810
 The opinions are not necessarily included. It's all about the information. It's like

957
01:13:48.810 --> 01:13:50.390
 You're connecting the dots

958
01:13:50.390 --> 01:13:55.310
 Correct, like based on past experiences past events and given what's happening now

959
01:13:55.310 --> 01:13:59.490
 This may be the outcome or the direction things may lead is is that

960
01:13:59.490 --> 01:14:03.390
 Correct assessment on my point on my side. Yeah. Yeah, so

961
01:14:03.990 --> 01:14:06.390
 traditionally intelligence should be laid out in

962
01:14:06.750 --> 01:14:13.190
 the format of fact which is like the thing you have collected so in a military context it could be

963
01:14:15.170 --> 01:14:15.810
 um

964
01:14:15.810 --> 01:14:17.330
 This intercept

965
01:14:18.970 --> 01:14:19.610
 Mentioned

966
01:14:19.610 --> 01:14:23.810
 Person x going to location y at specified time

967
01:14:24.370 --> 01:14:29.690
 And then you could have a comment under it, which is additional reporting that supports the information

968
01:14:29.690 --> 01:14:34.610
 You're writing a report about and it could be like person x is a known associate of

969
01:14:35.450 --> 01:14:37.590
 hvi yada yada yada

970
01:14:37.590 --> 01:14:41.690
 No one member of the islamic state and then your assessment could be

971
01:14:42.330 --> 01:14:44.690
 Person x is likely a member of the islamic state

972
01:14:44.690 --> 01:14:48.790
 Is possibly going to meet and it should have language in there that gives you

973
01:14:49.610 --> 01:14:50.170
 it's

974
01:14:50.170 --> 01:14:57.450
 Assessment-based language so it's likely possible and it's defined language that gives percentages on probability

975
01:14:58.130 --> 01:15:03.030
 And your assessment should also be fleshed out with other analysts who have also read the same reporting

976
01:15:03.030 --> 01:15:08.090
 It shouldn't just be one person's assessment. It's a generally quite a like

977
01:15:08.090 --> 01:15:09.330
 Collaborative thing to do

978
01:15:09.330 --> 01:15:11.950
 You sit down and talk about what you think

979
01:15:11.950 --> 01:15:18.190
 This piece of information might mean and then you provide assessments from there you can use like there's like other

980
01:15:18.750 --> 01:15:21.090
 tools and stuff like

981
01:15:21.090 --> 01:15:25.590
 Logic tools to help you make your assessments and then you use the language to

982
01:15:26.630 --> 01:15:33.030
 Give these assessments to decision makers. So when they read it it can be like, okay

983
01:15:33.030 --> 01:15:40.070
 There's a possible member of isis going to this building at this time. We can now use that to take these actions

984
01:15:41.050 --> 01:15:47.510
 So when when it comes to going back social media if people aren't doing these things then it's kind of a red flag

985
01:15:47.510 --> 01:15:49.390
 Right. It's not if some people should be going

986
01:15:50.030 --> 01:15:52.190
 These guys are kind of full of shit, right?

987
01:15:53.330 --> 01:15:54.550
 Yeah, but I think

988
01:15:55.290 --> 01:16:00.990
 I think they're just using the word wrong. Yeah, they've taken osant because it sounds cool

989
01:16:00.990 --> 01:16:07.170
 Yeah, and they're using it to describe news reporting. Yes, and because all they're doing is what they're trying to

990
01:16:08.730 --> 01:16:10.330
 Report the facts

991
01:16:11.170 --> 01:16:17.370
 Their opinion of their facts. Yeah, or just trying to get likes and clicks. I mean, yeah. Yeah

992
01:16:17.370 --> 01:16:18.730
 That's it engage them

993
01:16:18.730 --> 01:16:21.110
 but also like

994
01:16:21.110 --> 01:16:28.890
 As a person who is growing an account. Mm-hmm. I have you have to do you have to play their game, right is

995
01:16:29.670 --> 01:16:31.290
 There's no other way around it

996
01:16:31.290 --> 01:16:37.150
 And I've even like read books on like how social media how to grow a social media channel essentially

997
01:16:37.150 --> 01:16:39.010
 Yeah, and it's like

998
01:16:39.010 --> 01:16:43.990
 There's posts that are for people that already follow your account. So

999
01:16:44.750 --> 01:16:49.090
 Look to looking at my account every day. I try and write one

1000
01:16:49.090 --> 01:16:50.990
 like intelligence

1001
01:16:50.990 --> 01:16:53.970
 Assessment and I take a news story

1002
01:16:54.670 --> 01:16:57.250
 Put it in two paragraphs then write my

1003
01:16:59.560 --> 01:17:02.940
 My very smart camera is now zoomed in on my face. That's okay

1004
01:17:02.940 --> 01:17:04.440
 Go back

1005
01:17:05.760 --> 01:17:06.620
 That's really cool

1006
01:17:07.380 --> 01:17:11.440
 Okay, looks like you're zooming in for the rest of this. Um, it looks like you got one of those osbots

1007
01:17:11.440 --> 01:17:12.560
 Is it one of those cameras?

1008
01:17:13.400 --> 01:17:15.620
 Yes. Yeah. Yes from there exactly

1009
01:17:17.360 --> 01:17:19.860
 So now it's not it's based on your gestures

1010
01:17:20.740 --> 01:17:21.140
 Yeah

1011
01:17:21.960 --> 01:17:26.120
 Um, anyway, so yeah every day I try and do that and that's for people that already follow me

1012
01:17:26.120 --> 01:17:30.100
 So they're already interested and they're probably going to put in the time to actually read what I've written

1013
01:17:30.620 --> 01:17:33.100
 And then you have ways of getting new followers

1014
01:17:33.620 --> 01:17:39.500
 And that's where I think you have to play the game like right the things that bring new eyes to your channel

1015
01:17:41.140 --> 01:17:41.620
 are

1016
01:17:41.620 --> 01:17:46.220
 Cool videos on the internet. There's no other way around it. Yeah, i'm horrible at social media

1017
01:17:46.220 --> 01:17:50.780
 I don't play the social media game very well personally. I don't have time. I got to you know

1018
01:17:50.780 --> 01:17:53.020
 I got other ways. I got to make money here

1019
01:17:53.640 --> 01:17:55.520
 I mean, let's be honest

1020
01:17:56.020 --> 01:17:56.500
 so

1021
01:17:57.060 --> 01:18:00.940
 But you know, I appreciate what you're saying because you know, uh people got to be able to

1022
01:18:01.680 --> 01:18:05.100
 Decipher like who's real and who isn't and and I get what you're saying

1023
01:18:05.100 --> 01:18:09.700
 Like no, they're using the the word osent wrong because they're just regurgitating news

1024
01:18:09.700 --> 01:18:11.440
 We're trying to be first at look what happened

1025
01:18:11.440 --> 01:18:15.900
 But I I just find it wrong that they're using the word

1026
01:18:15.900 --> 01:18:21.960
 At all they should be honest about what it is because it what the problem is it sets the precedent for someone

1027
01:18:21.960 --> 01:18:25.480
 To look at osent in general for people like you

1028
01:18:26.040 --> 01:18:31.380
 They look at it from the wrong perspective, you know, they think that oh, this is relatable

1029
01:18:31.380 --> 01:18:34.220
 This is the same thing when it's really not and to me

1030
01:18:34.220 --> 01:18:38.000
 It kind of just cheapens what you're doing because you guys take what you do serious

1031
01:18:38.000 --> 01:18:40.920
 And these other people are just trying to write off your coattails basically

1032
01:18:41.560 --> 01:18:42.680
 Is what I see

1033
01:18:43.560 --> 01:18:47.680
 So, you know, maybe I maybe i'm taking a little bit too too strongly

1034
01:18:47.680 --> 01:18:51.340
 But that's that's kind of how I take it when i'm seeing these things

1035
01:18:51.800 --> 01:18:53.820
 What kind of thought on it is?

1036
01:18:54.820 --> 01:18:59.960
 All of the pages that I know to be like actual intelligence professionals

1037
01:19:00.520 --> 01:19:02.020
 Don't use the word osent

1038
01:19:02.940 --> 01:19:06.440
 They all use the word in intelligence. Yeah

1039
01:19:06.440 --> 01:19:08.780
 something intelligence

1040
01:19:10.100 --> 01:19:16.880
 Because to us osent is another collection stream. Yeah, it is just uh,

1041
01:19:17.440 --> 01:19:19.700
 It's yeah, it's just a type of collection

1042
01:19:20.520 --> 01:19:25.540
 So I think there's probably a reason somewhat reasonable way of understanding who

1043
01:19:26.080 --> 01:19:28.780
 Has actually worked in intelligence because you wouldn't

1044
01:19:30.200 --> 01:19:32.460
 I think it's becoming a thing now

1045
01:19:32.460 --> 01:19:34.620
 But like when I was in the military

1046
01:19:34.620 --> 01:19:39.540
 Osent was only just starting to be a thing and it wasn't like a dedicated collection

1047
01:19:40.300 --> 01:19:44.080
 Method it was just something intelligence analysts did

1048
01:19:44.080 --> 01:19:49.440
 And then we fused it with sigint or human or other forms event

1049
01:19:50.640 --> 01:19:52.500
 so, yeah and like

1050
01:19:52.500 --> 01:19:54.980
 That would be a weird way. I in my

1051
01:19:55.620 --> 01:19:57.740
 View it would be a weird way to

1052
01:19:57.740 --> 01:19:59.160
 describe yourself

1053
01:19:59.680 --> 01:20:03.640
 Or you're like fair enough if all you did was os yeah, I don't know

1054
01:20:03.640 --> 01:20:07.120
 No, I understand what you're saying. I I get it. I get it. That's yeah

1055
01:20:07.120 --> 01:20:11.600
 Interestingly, I know some of these pages do more than osent which is also funny

1056
01:20:11.600 --> 01:20:13.680
 So it's like they also do human

1057
01:20:15.080 --> 01:20:15.640
 so

1058
01:20:15.640 --> 01:20:18.100
 Calling themselves like an osent page is that okay?

1059
01:20:19.200 --> 01:20:22.920
 Almost in some ways selling themselves short because they do other kinds of collection

1060
01:20:22.920 --> 01:20:25.840
 Right and and really quick for people that don't know so osent

1061
01:20:25.840 --> 01:20:31.040
 We already said open source intelligence human would be human intelligence actual human interaction getting information from yeah

1062
01:20:31.040 --> 01:20:32.480
 So it's essentially just

1063
01:20:32.480 --> 01:20:38.760
 And there in the current context would be talking to someone online to get more information about a thing

1064
01:20:38.760 --> 01:20:41.280
 Yeah, essentially, it's probably not so public

1065
01:20:41.840 --> 01:20:42.360
 right

1066
01:20:43.340 --> 01:20:48.220
 Fair enough. Um, how about how about this Daniel? So thank you for that. I'll clean it up

1067
01:20:48.220 --> 01:20:52.860
 Uh, maybe you can help us at this. I want to get your opinion on how people can better

1068
01:20:52.860 --> 01:21:00.740
 Decipher between misinformation for example, and what's so what's what's real and what isn't I know it's getting harder with the advent of ai

1069
01:21:00.740 --> 01:21:02.420
 You know becoming what it is

1070
01:21:03.580 --> 01:21:04.060
 um

1071
01:21:04.860 --> 01:21:05.340
 so

1072
01:21:05.920 --> 01:21:10.360
 There's miss and dis information. Yeah misinformation is

1073
01:21:11.800 --> 01:21:17.200
 Inadvertently from my understanding is inadvertently misleading. So it's incorrect

1074
01:21:17.980 --> 01:21:25.400
 Essentially by accident from the outset. Yeah, it's mislead. It's misleading. Yes, so something it's like something that could be somewhat true

1075
01:21:25.780 --> 01:21:27.960
 But it's in the wrong context

1076
01:21:27.960 --> 01:21:30.000
 disinformation is

1077
01:21:30.000 --> 01:21:35.540
 Like actively and knowingly incorrect publishing and pushing it incorrect information

1078
01:21:35.540 --> 01:21:38.340
 um how to identify it

1079
01:21:38.340 --> 01:21:44.480
 Is to try and find things in multiple sources and intelligence we call it all source analysis or

1080
01:21:45.760 --> 01:21:48.220
 Corroboration corroborating information. Yeah corroborating

1081
01:21:48.880 --> 01:21:53.900
 Yeah, so you would find it essentially try and find something in multiple different sources

1082
01:21:53.900 --> 01:21:57.060
 So in all of the articles that I publish

1083
01:21:57.760 --> 01:22:01.160
 I try and find it two and two to three different newspapers

1084
01:22:02.000 --> 01:22:03.840
 um, I have my

1085
01:22:03.840 --> 01:22:09.540
 Newspapers that I read and trust and then if I can find a story a similar story or the same story on the same topic

1086
01:22:09.540 --> 01:22:10.780
 in all of them

1087
01:22:10.780 --> 01:22:12.160
 then I

1088
01:22:12.160 --> 01:22:14.380
 Can I know I can bring it all together?

1089
01:22:14.860 --> 01:22:16.140
 to make a pretty

1090
01:22:16.140 --> 01:22:18.060
 realistic situation

1091
01:22:18.060 --> 01:22:22.790
 um, it's also knowing especially when you're talking about open source information is like

1092
01:22:23.620 --> 01:22:25.240
 Who's behind it?

1093
01:22:25.400 --> 01:22:29.060
 Um, and when you're talking about i wasn't accounts super hard because you don't know who's behind right?

1094
01:22:29.060 --> 01:22:35.980
 Like where is the company can't where's the account based what kind of biases does the person have is an account called?

1095
01:22:37.040 --> 01:22:37.200
 rash

1096
01:22:37.960 --> 01:22:38.520
 24

1097
01:22:39.920 --> 01:22:40.480
 Okay

1098
01:22:40.480 --> 01:22:43.220
 Something like crash something

1099
01:22:43.220 --> 01:22:45.500
 Um, i'm gonna look it up now. We'll check

1100
01:22:46.280 --> 01:22:48.180
 And you're talking about on x

1101
01:22:48.820 --> 01:22:50.820
 Yeah, he posts lots of

1102
01:22:52.140 --> 01:22:57.680
 Videos he's banned heaps of people on a clash report. Oh clash report

1103
01:22:59.000 --> 01:22:59.600
 Yeah

1104
01:23:00.480 --> 01:23:01.680
 Um, anyway

1105
01:23:01.680 --> 01:23:07.200
 Really big channel eight hundred and nine thousand followers. He is turkish

1106
01:23:08.160 --> 01:23:13.400
 Got your old turkish people, but you got to know he's turkish. So if he's talking about things that involve

1107
01:23:14.500 --> 01:23:15.100
 kurds

1108
01:23:15.100 --> 01:23:18.260
 He's gonna have an opinion. Yeah

1109
01:23:18.260 --> 01:23:22.760
 Significant bias and if you look at the way he talks about things that happen in syria

1110
01:23:23.920 --> 01:23:25.120
 um, he's

1111
01:23:25.120 --> 01:23:27.100
 He's not subtle about his biases

1112
01:23:27.820 --> 01:23:30.300
 The yurt language he uses to describe kurdish people

1113
01:23:31.020 --> 01:23:32.920
 Uh is pretty interrogatory

1114
01:23:33.500 --> 01:23:34.760
 So like it's pretty clear

1115
01:23:34.760 --> 01:23:37.180
 yeah, but like

1116
01:23:37.180 --> 01:23:40.500
 It's understanding that like who is behind these things, right?

1117
01:23:41.220 --> 01:23:44.720
 Um, so like and then there's also nowadays is ai

1118
01:23:46.220 --> 01:23:50.020
 Verification cross-checking. So like if i'm going to post a video

1119
01:23:50.800 --> 01:23:55.320
 I'll run it through an ai checker and it will give me a percentage on whether it's true

1120
01:23:55.320 --> 01:23:58.120
 Can you can you uh expand on that because

1121
01:23:58.120 --> 01:24:02.080
 So how would the average person like I don't even know how to do that. I don't I don't know the tools

1122
01:24:02.080 --> 01:24:04.120
 How would someone be able to check?

1123
01:24:05.100 --> 01:24:11.000
 ai like what tool would you use to to run a video or whatever through and and have it go, okay

1124
01:24:11.760 --> 01:24:15.660
 Spit out the results and say yeah, this is definitely ai. Like how is that? How is that done?

1125
01:24:16.820 --> 01:24:21.720
 So there's a website called undetectable ai or i'm not sponsored by fair enough

1126
01:24:21.720 --> 01:24:25.560
 No, not at all, but and you can give them a link or

1127
01:24:25.560 --> 01:24:29.540
 A video and it will give you a percentage likelihood on whether it's real or not

1128
01:24:30.020 --> 01:24:35.300
 And I just use it every time before I post a video just to make sure that it is a real video

1129
01:24:35.300 --> 01:24:40.680
 So how they actually work, I don't know and there's the website. You're not endorsed by or anything, right?

1130
01:24:42.020 --> 01:24:43.720
 It's just uh

1131
01:24:43.720 --> 01:24:47.500
 Very easy to use one that I found and it seems to be pretty good

1132
01:24:48.020 --> 01:24:52.580
 So there so there are there are tools out there for people to use to be able to to do that

1133
01:24:52.580 --> 01:24:57.840
 So, you know a lot of the a lot of the problems we we run into if especially we're looking at like social media nexus

1134
01:24:58.380 --> 01:24:59.460
 You know people

1135
01:24:59.960 --> 01:25:01.300
 Have been conditioned

1136
01:25:01.300 --> 01:25:07.100
 Societally, you know in in the world not even just america or uk like everywhere

1137
01:25:07.720 --> 01:25:11.320
 They just they just don't want to take the time like they just want to

1138
01:25:11.320 --> 01:25:14.920
 Look at the phone glance. Oh, that's what's happening. And then they're like, yeah, okay

1139
01:25:14.920 --> 01:25:18.740
 I buy that and they just keep going on with their day and they take these things as fact

1140
01:25:19.380 --> 01:25:20.920
 so if if anything

1141
01:25:22.220 --> 01:25:23.340
 How how can

1142
01:25:23.340 --> 01:25:27.180
 How can we get people to retrain themselves? For example to

1143
01:25:28.000 --> 01:25:33.380
 See past the the flash and trash as I would say of social media and just go

1144
01:25:33.380 --> 01:25:37.700
 Yeah, you know like hey gas is up ten dollars and everyone's like, oh, yeah, it's up ten dollars

1145
01:25:37.700 --> 01:25:38.540
 Oh fuck that sucks

1146
01:25:38.540 --> 01:25:42.580
 And then but it's really like well it's up in ten dollars in a small town at this one gas station owned by

1147
01:25:42.580 --> 01:25:45.660
 One guy for example, you know, they're not really going to be on the headline

1148
01:25:45.660 --> 01:25:52.540
 Is there is there a way in um in your opinion that people can kind of retrain themselves to to to go past that like

1149
01:25:53.040 --> 01:25:59.840
 Get get get go past the 30 second attention span or are we just doomed to always be stuck in the situation?

1150
01:25:59.960 --> 01:26:00.960
 We are in

1151
01:26:03.430 --> 01:26:05.110
 No answer

1152
01:26:05.110 --> 01:26:06.970
 Do worry we're doomed

1153
01:26:06.970 --> 01:26:09.350
 I think so, too

1154
01:26:09.350 --> 01:26:10.170
 unfortunately

1155
01:26:10.730 --> 01:26:11.330
 this is

1156
01:26:12.250 --> 01:26:17.620
 Yeah, I don't I actually don't know

1157
01:26:17.620 --> 01:26:20.240
 Hey, that's a fair answer man. I it's it's I mean

1158
01:26:20.240 --> 01:26:24.780
 we're not going to solve all the world's problems, but you know, I I just see I just see how

1159
01:26:24.780 --> 01:26:30.300
 You know, unfortunately, we've been marching down this short attention span society like global society

1160
01:26:30.300 --> 01:26:34.040
 In terms of attention span. It's like it makes it so hard

1161
01:26:34.040 --> 01:26:39.200
 So hard for people to get down to the bottom of the truth if we're just relying on media and social media accounts

1162
01:26:39.200 --> 01:26:42.720
 Because everybody just wants to capture attention within that first five seconds

1163
01:26:42.960 --> 01:26:47.440
 You know or 10 seconds. I mean most people aren't aren't even watching 30 second videos all the way through anymore

1164
01:26:48.180 --> 01:26:48.620
 so

1165
01:26:49.200 --> 01:26:53.980
 It's like how how do we get our point across like how do we how do we get convinced people like no

1166
01:26:53.980 --> 01:26:56.940
 I did the work. Here's what's going on

1167
01:26:56.940 --> 01:27:02.180
 and then so often they're dismissing professionals like yourself for example because they're like

1168
01:27:02.640 --> 01:27:08.820
 Yeah, I don't have the time for that. You're not really getting to the point within the first five seconds like how

1169
01:27:09.600 --> 01:27:12.260
 How would we be able to get our messaging across?

1170
01:27:12.260 --> 01:27:14.420
 I mean, can we condense it to that level?

1171
01:27:15.800 --> 01:27:19.360
 I mean, it's I think it's also the way things are put across

1172
01:27:19.360 --> 01:27:20.960
 um like having

1173
01:27:20.960 --> 01:27:25.410
 A bluff having like as much information as you can

1174
01:27:25.680 --> 01:27:28.250
 Right very early on so

1175
01:27:29.320 --> 01:27:38.060
 Much like traditional intelligence recipients would get the executive summary of the report which is two to three paragraphs or lines

1176
01:27:38.060 --> 01:27:43.820
 basically, okay, um, it's not good

1177
01:27:43.820 --> 01:27:50.300
 It's hard because some of these things are so complex like how are you? Yeah. Yeah, absolutely and people just don't care

1178
01:27:51.620 --> 01:27:52.060
 Yeah

1179
01:27:53.320 --> 01:27:58.520
 It's extremely hard, but i'm just gonna say we're fucked. I guess I don't know. Yeah, I guess

1180
01:28:00.340 --> 01:28:02.400
 Well hell man, um

1181
01:28:02.900 --> 01:28:07.640
 Let's go ahead and uh, let's go ahead and call it for now if you're okay with that. Um, yeah

1182
01:28:07.640 --> 01:28:12.440
 Yeah, no, I appreciate this. This was good. Daniel. Um, maybe we can reconnect again later

1183
01:28:12.440 --> 01:28:16.340
 Because there's always gonna be something going on. I'd love to get more updates. Yeah, right

1184
01:28:16.340 --> 01:28:18.960
 I would like to get more updates from you down the road for sure

1185
01:28:19.460 --> 01:28:24.840
 Um, but hey listen, I appreciate your time. Thank you for uh, giving your insight and your

1186
01:28:24.840 --> 01:28:29.120
 I'm not gonna say a painting. I'm gonna get uh giving us your assessment on what was going on in iran

1187
01:28:29.120 --> 01:28:31.640
 uh what you think on ukraine russia war

1188
01:28:32.260 --> 01:28:39.640
 and kind of you know giving us a better idea on how we can look past the bs on social media and really recognize like

1189
01:28:39.640 --> 01:28:44.920
 Who's really going out there to give us information versus those who are just sensationalizing and trying to get likes and clicks and

1190
01:28:45.600 --> 01:28:51.880
 Just trying to be at the forefront but not really delivering anything substantive in terms of actual material that's beneficial

1191
01:28:52.420 --> 01:28:52.860
 so

1192
01:28:53.400 --> 01:28:55.680
 I do appreciate all of that

1193
01:28:55.680 --> 01:28:58.300
 No worries. All right. Let's talk about you. How do people find you?

1194
01:28:58.320 --> 01:29:01.140
 Where should they go to get more daniel? Where do they get more?

1195
01:29:02.100 --> 01:29:07.220
 Um, I think it's like hm intelligence on basically all platforms mainly on instagram

1196
01:29:07.940 --> 01:29:08.820
 my current

1197
01:29:09.560 --> 01:29:16.940
 Focus is that hmintelligence.com or dot org? I don't recall. Oh, it's dot org. It is a website. It's dot

1198
01:29:16.940 --> 01:29:21.580
 All right, um dot com dot com was about five thousand pounds more expensive

1199
01:29:22.460 --> 01:29:27.320
 Okay, well because hm could be her majesty's or his majesty's understood

1200
01:29:27.320 --> 01:29:29.920
 So hmintelligence.org

1201
01:29:30.460 --> 01:29:33.780
 And then you have your daily podcast, correct? That's pretty much everywhere

1202
01:29:34.680 --> 01:29:38.160
 Yeah, uh, it's called the intel brief. It's essentially just me

1203
01:29:38.840 --> 01:29:42.200
 Giving off three stories, uh every morning

1204
01:29:42.200 --> 01:29:45.220
 Uh, it's between six to eight minutes

1205
01:29:45.220 --> 01:29:50.440
 pretty quick pretty short and sharp has a video that goes with it if you want to see what i'm talking about

1206
01:29:50.440 --> 01:29:57.200
 And I give an assessment on each thing i'm talking about and also youtube videos. So the hmintelligence on youtube

1207
01:29:57.200 --> 01:29:58.940
 trying to do

1208
01:29:58.940 --> 01:30:06.700
 Not long form but like more longer form. So around 10 minutes long videos looking at different topics and explaining it that way

1209
01:30:06.700 --> 01:30:08.360
 So concise to the point

1210
01:30:08.820 --> 01:30:10.780
 Get on with your day, right?

1211
01:30:11.340 --> 01:30:16.420
 Yeah, and then and then for deeper dives, um, they can contact your company to

1212
01:30:17.540 --> 01:30:20.420
 Get what other services that you may offer from there. Is that correct?

1213
01:30:21.400 --> 01:30:23.380
 Yeah, i'll point you in the right direction gotcha

1214
01:30:26.000 --> 01:30:31.500
 Fair enough. All right, daniel appreciate it, sir. Thank you for your time. Thank you very much. Awesome

1215
01:30:32.660 --> 01:30:35.240
 Devils hide behind redemption

1216
01:30:35.920 --> 01:30:38.740
 Honesty is a one-way gate to hell

1217
01:30:43.330 --> 01:30:44.370
 Shh