Nov. 20, 2024
48 - KERVIN AUCOIN - PUTIN'S NUCLEAR THREAT, ELECTION OUTCOME, OSINT, AND TULSI GABBARD
What is really going on with Russia's nuclear threat and NATO allies supplying weapons to Ukraine. I sit down with Kervin Aucoin from This Week Explained, and he sheds light on what to expect backed by data and 20 years of experience as an intelligence analyst. We also talk about the election outcome, OSINT, and Tulsi Gabbards appointment as Director of National Intelligence.
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Today we welcome back Curvin Oakwyn, host of the podcast
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this Week, explained he is also an intelligence analyst with
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over twenty years experience. He helps shed the light on
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the situation in Russia and Ukraine, especially after Biden had
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given Ukraine the green light to use US made missiles
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to launch attacks against Russian territories. We also discuss how
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Putin's claim of using nuclear weapons and retaliation against Ukraine
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for using US made missiles is nothing more than posturing
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and that we need to stop talking about World War three.
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Curvin and I then go on to touch on the
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election outcome, truth and information in social media, the validity
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of podcasting, and we also discuss Tulsi Gabbert's new appointment
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as head of National Intelligence, what that means and if
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she is qualified for the role. You are listening to
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a FONDS Network production.
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Take my eyes open, the fussyity like you just let
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me in my way.
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Hell little wood Blaze listeners. Today, I welcome Curvin back
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to the show and Curvin, how you doing. I'm doing well.
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We've had a little pre game earlier.
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Hey, let me first say I am excited to be back.
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I really enjoyed the last conversation. I know that you know,
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we've been back and forth trying to get this scheduled.
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Some new things are popping up in the geopolitical realm.
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I'm sure everybody is hearing of so, so the fact
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that you're flexible and that you have let me come
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back on and say my piece and all of this
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I really appreciative. Man. I love this show. I love
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being a part of it, and hopefully we don't get
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too wild today.
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Well, so, like I said earlier, you know, we had
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a little talk previously before I pressure record button and
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just catching up in you know, reality is I did
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want to go in a different direction at first, but
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I know that you don't want to talk about it again.
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But this whole thing that's going on in Ukraine, it's
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hard to ignore. I know you've been on a few
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broadcasts already and you have some other things I nd
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up with, you know, news Live News. So that's awesome
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that people are reaching out to you for that and
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for clarity. So that's great, and I'm glad you're here
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to be honest because you keep us honest and you
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can correct me on stuff that I'm probably wrong on.
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But with everything going on, and I know you're busy
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because I see that you're very active right now because
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of this.
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Yeah, my socials are so so active. It's good and bad.
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I'll say that.
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Yeah, well hopefully this is all good. But yeah, I
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have Okay, Trump one, we're going to get past that,
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you know, his cabinet picks whatever. I know, we don't
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want to do all on that because personally, I'm like,
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I'm on the same pager as I kind of want
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to move on and talk about other important things. Right. Yeah,
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there's a few candidates or picks that I'll go over later,
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not here my own show, and I'll deep dive and
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you know, i'll give them my give my opinion on that.
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I will ask you as we talked about earlier about Tulci,
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but kicked that can down the road just a little
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bit for now. Let's get but let's get into what's
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going on in Ukraine. The whole thing that I can't
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believe that. Okay, I have theories on this, and but firstly,
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Biden give them the ok in the green lights to
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Ukraine to use US made weapons. And then after that, yeah,
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France in Britain that said yes you can use ours
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as well. And then Putin's response is literally, I mean
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just reiterating what he said before uh the election, in saying, hey,
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if you allow this, I'm going to look at that
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as you being directly involved in this war. Thoughts on that, yeah,
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a lot.
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So open ended question, I get it, but that's actually
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the thought on everybody's mind, right And well, I've been
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very consistent on this from from the beginning that Ukraine
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asked for, especially the attack ons, which is the US
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capable long range missile system tactical missiles, and I was
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very consistent that I think Ukraine should be allowed to
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use this. You know, they were given them if they
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need to use them in Russian territory. Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Have we forgotten that unless you are just a completely
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pro Russian person, which some people are, and I get that,
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if you're just sitting there looking at this from a
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nuanced perspective, and you've got Russia sending missiles to Kiev,
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to Laviv, which is closer to the Polish border than
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it is to the Russian border, why not why not
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have so Russia is using Ukraine. Sorry one second, here,
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Russia is using Iranian provided weapons. They're using North Korean
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provided weapons. They're using Chinese provided weapons to attack Ukraine
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in Ukrainian territory, so why not use Western munitions deeper
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into Russia territory? And I get that it's because Putin
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has said he nuclear weapons are not off the table.
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It's going to be a war with NATO. But he
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has said this from the very beginning, from the moment
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he made that miscalculation for a push in to Kiev.
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He has said anything that the West done, that the
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West does is a red line for Russia, and they're
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going to attack NATO if that happens. F sixteen's that
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was a red line. One A one Abrams. Those are
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the tanks that the US provided. And I'm really coming
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from a US perspective here because I'm a US intelligence professional.
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I was a US Army So if you hear a
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lot of me talking about the US stuff, that's because
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I know it in Trent, like I know a lot
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about this. So all of those, if they're used, then
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that's a red line for Putin. He could use nuclear weapons.
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Not a single time have those happened that he has
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actually solidified that as a red line used nuclear weapons.
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So what does that tell you? It tells you he's
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a bully and that not a lot of the things
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he says is actually true. So at that point, like
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Mike Tyson, funny, Mike Tyson, he just had a fight
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with with Jake Paul that was kind of a big disappointment.
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But Mike Tyson famously saying everybody has a plan until
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you punch him in the mouth.
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Yes, they do. So it's is it hoot and posturing?
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I mean, are these really just veiled threats you think?
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Or is he really getting closer to saying fuck it? No?
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I don't. I don't think he's at a fuck it moment? Which, uh, which,
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thank you for starting that off. So I know where
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my language barriers are.
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Like we're good.
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I could get quiet, I know I've already been on,
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but I can get quite wild sometimes. It's Yeah, My
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point that I'm waiting for is the cat in the corner.
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Anybody who has cats or have ever dealt with cats,
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If you put them in a corner and you you
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interrogate them or move to towards them, it's complete chaos
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as soon as they get in that corner, and there's
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no way out. Once putin's backed in a corner and
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there's no way out. That's the moment I think nuclear
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weapons are used. So how do you do that? You
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attack Putin personally, much like Israel does with Hezbolah leadership
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and Hamas leadership and stuff, where you're attacking the leaders,
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not just fighting a war.
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But does that in your panda, Ukraine themselves have that
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capability or would they have to rely on outside agencies
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to make it?
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Yeah, they would, they would, definitely, And I don't think
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I honestly don't think Ukraine has a desire to I
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would hope, not honestly, to kill Vladimir Putin. Say whatever
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you want about Vladimir Putin. Yes, he's a dictator, he's
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maybe a despot, he's all of these terrible things. But
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you assassinate a leader of a country. Yes, Russia is
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a free country because I get the elections are not
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one hundred percent fair and balanced, but the majority if
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you talk to Russians, and I've talked to Russians, I've
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been in Russia, they love Putin. He has quite a
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big approval rating in Russia. Take out all of this
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in interference and him, you know, bumping the numbers up
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people in Russia love him, even the moderates. If you
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kill Vladimir Putin, that's the point where I think if
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he sees that he's about to be assassinated, he will
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use nuclear weapons because so what, what the fuck, I'm
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just gonna do it, kill the whole world, that's my legacy.
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Who's going to remember anyway, that's the moment that he
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does it. I don't think it's a good idea to
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do that at all. And also Ukraine just doesn't have
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the capabilities to do that, right.
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I'm kind of thinking that for as bad as Putin,
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maybe in our eyes or in most of the world's eyes,
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if that did happen, I think they would just lead
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to further chaos, you know, because everyone's gonna come out
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of the would work trying to take charge, and probably
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people even worse than him. He may be the only
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one actually keeping things stable there, even though we don't
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think he is.
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Just my opinion, yeah, absolutely, no, your your opinion is
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factually correct. You make him into a martyr. He then
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goes from a global pariah into a global martyr. Not
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for maybe not for everybody, but yeah, there will be
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a majority of people around the globe who say that
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was the wrong thing to do. Don't. I don't believe
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that you should have done that. And now we're going
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to actually mourn his death no matter what happens. Look,
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the guy has done a lot of terrible things. He's
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not Hitler. Hitler is on a whole different level. This
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is part of my problem with every presidential candidate post
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World War two is hitler because they don't agree with
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my belief system. Just because somebody doesn't believe what doesn't
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believe the same as you doesn't make them hitler. Right now,
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if they round up six million Jews and start to
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kill them indiscriminately, that's that's a hitler. What Putin is
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doing is more on the level of like a Napoleon,
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somebody who sees himself as a world leader, not just
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a Russian leader, and wants to, you know, his legacy
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is more important than anything else in his life.
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I agree with that, you know, especially as he's getting older.
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I think he wants to be known for someone who
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is considered to be great in the world. And I'm
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not gonna I'm not gonna sit here and disagree with
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anything you said in terms of Ukraine defending themselves because
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they should, any nation should be able to defend themselves.
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And it's crazy that, you know, Putin will put out
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this mandate about, you know, considering anybody to be direct
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involved in the war, just for using weapons manufactured by
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other countries such as ourselves, such as the USA. Yet
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like you said, he's using weapons supplied by his allies,
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which is which is not a problem. Apparently question though,
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because he just he just had another press release where
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where Yeah, he brought that. I know you I was
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gonna play it, but I'm sure you saw it. You're
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probably way ahead of me. Anyways, been a rough couple
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of days.
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I'm still trying to run back, but he's he's reiterating.
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But he did so when I watched I watch a
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few different version because I don't speak Russians. I just
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watched different translations to try to compare them to see
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the consistency in them, and each one. I he did say,
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and this is where I asked you if you thought
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it was a vailed threat, because he did say he
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would under consideration if it was verifiable evidence of direct involvement.
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So he says all these things like, well, I will
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use them because I will consider this. You know I
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will consider the US being directly involved now because they okay,
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do you Craine to use these weapons? But then later in
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the speech he says, but given verifiable evidence. So I'm
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not really sure where he's at with that other than
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that's That's why I was asking if you thought it
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was posturing, because it seems like he's just trying trying
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not to look weak to his people at this point.
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So that's exactly it, what you said at the end.
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That's what he's doing, okay, And it's something every leader does, right,
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so they understand, Hey, now we're getting hit by attackers.
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It's a military site that's being hit. But the people
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of Russia know this. They're not completely in the dark
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about what's happening. So they're seeing, well, Ukraine's using these
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US provided munitions and they're hitting within Russia. Putin what
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are you doing about it? He has to come up
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and do this press conference and do this public event
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where he says, listen, if we have verifiable, one hundred
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percent evidence that NATO is providing munitions that are being
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used in this war to attack Russian people in Russia,
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all bets are off. We're going nuclear. He has to
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say that, is he going to do it, so all
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bets are off, I think if a and this is
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part of my problem with allowing Ukraine to use these
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weapons for long range, they have to be very accurate,
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and these weapons are very accurate. But if there's a
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misstrike and it hits a civilian population, now the attackers
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can't reach Moscow, they can reach other populations within Russia.
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